Why Obama Will Lose in 2012

In honor of Independence Day, we hope you’ll take a moment to read Burt’s tribute to his parents and grandparents, The Flag & I.

As my more faithful readers know, I would never be confused with Pollyanna, even if I donned a pinafore and carried a parasol. But, just as confident as I was that John McCain, thanks to his own pathetic campaign and the economy’s coming down with a severe case of the vapors a month before the election, would lose to Barack Obama, that’s how confident I am that Obama is moving back to Chicago in January, 2013.

Unlike Dick Morris, who told Bill O’Reilly that Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina would easily defeat Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer here in California, I knew no Republican had a chance in a statewide election. Come to think of it, I often wish I had the same opportunities to win steak dinners from Morris that O’Reilly has. I’d never have to pay for another meal. In fact, sometimes, I wonder if Morris is reading tealeaves or smoking them.

In any case, I have a slew of reasons why I’m convinced Obama is bound to lose the 2012 election. To begin with, the curtain has been pulled back on the Wizard of Malarkey, and millions of suckers have seen with their own eyes that “Hope and Change” was just more of the same old political hokum. What’s more, feeling good about yourself because you voted to elect a black president doesn’t mean quite as much when he’s the incumbent.

There is also the matter of an unemployment rate that’s higher than when he took office and immediately pushed through a trillion dollar stimulus he guaranteed would drastically lower that rate. As if that weren’t bad enough, he’s run up four trillion dollars in additional debt, much of it owed to China. Then, for reasons I can’t begin to fathom, he sent us into Libya, at a current cost of a billion dollars, in the vague hope of removing a Middle Eastern tyrant who’s no better or worse than the rest of his colleagues in that part of the world. Furthermore, even if we managed to eliminate Gaddafi, jihadists in the guise of freedom fighters would in all likelihood, replace him.

But the actual reasons I’m betting Obama won’t be re-elected is quite simply because he won’t have the electoral votes.

In 2008, Obama carried 28 states and the District of Columbia. That gave him 365 electoral votes to McCain’s 173. But that was then and this is now. At the time, Obama’s offshore drilling ban hadn’t destroyed the oil-driven economy of the Gulf States. While it’s true that most of those states, though not Florida, went for McCain, I’d say that Obama’s energy policy and his push for the Cap & Trade Bill ensures that none of them will be moving into his column.

In addition, the soaring cost to fuel their cars, heat their homes and feed their families, will serve to remind voters all over the country that not even Clinton was as fanatical in his opposition to the American coal and oil industries. It will not be overlooked that, at the same time he was attacking America’s oil industry, he was giving Brazil two billion dollars to help finance their off-shore oil industry — in which, coincidentally, George (“I’m Not Dracula!”) Soros has a huge financial stake, though, unfortunately, not a wooden one through his heart.

In breaking down the electoral votes, I am also taking into account the number of people who side with Arizona in its ongoing battle with Obama over illegal aliens, as well as those who live in the 28 states whose attorney generals have joined in opposition to the President’s proudest achievement, ObamaCare.

Along with all of those considerations, one should keep in mind that Obama only won Ohio by 4%, Florida by 3% and Indiana and North Carolina by 1% each. That’s the same Indiana from which Obama is now threatening to withhold $4 billion in Medicare allotments for daring to de-fund Planned Parenthood.

One should also keep in mind that during the first two years of his administration, Virginia, Ohio and New Jersey, all elected Republican governors, in spite of Obama’s earnest efforts on behalf of their opponents. In Massachusetts, the voters even elected a Republican senator for the first time in decades. Proving these weren’t aberrations, in the midterms, the GOP added 60 seats in the House and half a dozen in the Senate.

While it’s true that a Republican House will prevent Obama from going quite as crazy in his last two years as he did in his first two, I think there is very little chance that they’ll be able to rein him in as much as Newt Gingrich and the Republican House reined in Bill Clinton in the mid-90s, which, ironically, helped him get re-elected. For one thing, Clinton, unlike Obama, was more a practical political hack and less a left-wing ideologue.

Besides, even as a survival tactic, if Obama attempted to veer towards the center, the combination of Reid, Pelosi, Schumer, Kucinich, Waxman, Sherman, Leahy, Frank, Boxer and Wasserman-Schultz, would keep pulling him back.

It’s bad enough, so far as Obama’s base is concerned, that they’ve had to eat their words when it came to the War Powers Act, Gitmo, military tribunals, enhanced interrogation, ACORN and the Patriot Act. If you expect them to come to their belated senses when it comes to such things as drilling offshore, in ANWR and Wyoming; doing away with affirmative action; opposing same-sex marriages and federally-funded abortions; acknowledging global warming to be a gigantic hoax; adopting a pro-Israel policy in the Middle East; returning power to the states; and doing away with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (aka ObamaCare), you might as well expect them to register as Republicans.

So, while overcoming Obama’s 365-173 advantage in 2008 might seem an impossible task, bear in mind that 12 of the 28 states that are trying to get rid of ObamaCare helped get him elected last time. But thanks to his overbearing arrogance, his obvious contempt for anyone who disagrees with his policies, his narcissism, his ineptitude when it comes to managing the economy, his endless appearances on TV and his bias in favor of the Arabs over the Israelis, I don’t believe he has won over anyone who wasn’t already convinced he was godlike in 2008.

Making his re-election even more implausible is the fact that thanks to the census, redistricting has shifted electoral votes in the GOP’s favor, so even if he repeated his 2008 performance, he’d end up with six fewer electoral votes.

Added to all of that are the endless rounds of golf, parties, vacations and campaign fund-raising events, he somehow manages to find time for, while leaving such minor details as forging a federal budget and dealing with spending cuts to underlings like Pelosi and Reid.

If, in addition to Florida (27 electoral votes), Indiana (11) and North Carolina (15), where Obama only squeaked by last time, Virginia (13), Ohio (20) and New Jersey (15) — all states in which the likes of Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie, now rule the roost, we’re talking about 101 electoral votes. Which means that even in the unlikely event that Obama somehow manages to hang on to those other 22 states, he would end up in 2012 with 258 electoral votes, losing to someone with an (R) after his or her name who’d have 280.


©2011 Burt Prelutsky. Comments? Write Burt!
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Author Bio:

Burt Prelutsky, a very nice person once you get to know him, has been a humor columnist for the L.A. Times and a movie critic for Los Angeles magazine. As a freelancer, he has written for the New York Times, Washington Times, TV Guide, Modern Maturity, Emmy, Holiday, American Film, and Sports Illustrated. For television, he has written for Dragnet, McMillan & Wife, MASH, Mary Tyler Moore, Rhoda, Bob Newhart, Family Ties, Dr. Quinn and Diagnosis Murder. In addition, he has written a batch of terrific TV movies. View Burt’s IMDB profile. Talk about being well-rounded, he plays tennis and poker... and rarely cheats at either. He lives in the San Fernando Valley, where he takes his marching orders from a wife named Yvonne and a dog named Angel.
Author website: http://www.burtprelutsky.com/
  • Kevin M. Temple

    I would like to post this on Facebook to broaden my friends’ minds, but it won’t transfer.

  • dognut

    Very well said J.L.T. Obama will be defeated in 2012 and the media elites and obama zombies will be beside themselves. There will be no objective introspection as to why it happened. The race card will be used as well as blaming Fox News and conservative talk radio. When you don’t learn from your mistakes you repeat them. Duh!

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Cesar-M-Gonzalez/1104556209 Cesar M Gonzalez

      Obama will be defeated ?? Really ?? Where are all the posts after the election ?? You right wing wackos are all eating crow ! And you can forget 2016 as well………Speak to me Dognut ! I demand an answer ! The right wing has buried itself for good ! The people of the U.S.A. have wised up to your lies and your self defeating stupidities. You right wingers truly think that you own the U.S.A. And you constantly make the huge mistake of believing that the Founding Fathers were conservatives, and / or Christians……Did they not come here to escape from religious zealots ?? Go eat skunk Dognut.

  • dognut

    J.L.T, very well said. Remember the old adage, the have’s and the have not’s. The have’s meaning those that have a brain will be successful in booting Obama from office in 2012.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Cesar-M-Gonzalez/1104556209 Cesar M Gonzalez

      What a totally ridiculous statement Dognut……You have been getting way too much indoctrination from Rush Limbaugh the nut, and Glenn Beck the wacko……Those two and many others are slowly but surely losing all credibility with the intelligent people among us…..I hope that all of the right wing wackos continue full speed ahead with their radio and TV programs…..They got President Obama reelected. Thanks Rush !

  • Jim

    Also such great appointments as Eric(fast and furious)Holder,Timmy(turbo tax)Geitner,Van (Bush did it)Jones and NLRB(we only want union jobs created). As for the minorities, they voted for him last time. It was the misinformed (thanks MSM) independents who thought that it was time for a black guy to be president. How’s that hope and change working for you, idiots.

  • Wil Burns

    Burt, Do you really want to ge back to the Bush era?

    • Jeffreydan

      Wil,

      So, in your line of “thought,” there exists only one of two possible scenarios: BO’s policies or President Bush’s. Mmmm-hmmm…

      I’d challenge you to demonstrate how BO’s policies have improved ANYTHING whatsoever since he took office, but we’ve all seen the Wil-shaped puff of smoke you leave behind when faced with debating on substance.

    • Jim

      Is that the extent of your argument? Sorry Obama is already using that one. I think he puts that in every speech. It’s Bush’s fault.

  • Rick

    Your a bigget and a rasist!

    • CCNV

      You’re a LOSER! Use spell check.

  • J.L.T.

    It should be interresting to see how the spin masters deal with Obama’s record on high unemployment, high food and energy, the housing implosion, sky rocketing debt, immigration and national security, failed and dangerous foreign policy, his love for the muslims call to morning prayer and his love of redistribution collectivism. I’m sure the old standby that Bush drove the car into the ditch, and so the messiah needs more time, will pop up again in hopes that Obama gets another shot at pushing the car over the hope and change cliff. Did someone on TV say Obama was acting like a “Dick”?

    • dognut

      Very well said J.L.T. Obama will be defeated in 2102. The media elites and obama zombies will be beside themselves. Instead of objective introspection they will blame it on racism, Fox News and conservative talk radio. They don’t learn from their mistakes, that’s why history keeps repeating itself.

  • begbie

    This is a very interesting analysis, Burt. I hope you’re right, but I still think that Obama has the biggest advantage of anyone who’s run for the office……MINORITY VOTES.

    No matter what he does, he’s guaranteed a huge majority of the minority due simply to his race. Policy has little to do with it. Just like the last election, experience whether some or none, will not matter one bit to the segment of our population that believes it’s more important to continue to “make history”. There are members of congress who still believe Obama’s critics are motivated in their disapproval by race, so it’s only reasonable to assume that a lot of their support for Obama is also motivated by race.

    Hopefully, most voters will connect the dots between this President and the sad state of our country with all of it’s continued self-made and perpetuated problems. If that connection is made he may not make it for a second term afterall.