Daly: Marco Rubio for President?

Maybe it's wishful thinking. Maybe it's something more.

I thought the Marco Rubio of the pre-Trump era was pretty great.

A young, passionate Reaganite with an inspiring immigrant-family story and a strong grasp of important issues, Rubio was widely believed to be the future of the GOP. He rose up quickly through the ranks of Republican politics, earning a Florida House seat at the age of 28. Six years later, he became Florida House Speaker. He became a favorite of the Tea Party movement during President Obama’s first term, and by his 40th birthday, he was already a U.S. Senator.

In the spring of 2015, having built an impressive national profile, and having established himself as a leading voice on numerous issues, he announced that he was running for president.

As talented and popular as Rubio was at the time, capturing the 2016 nomination was always going to be a tall order, especially with 16 other Republican hopefuls to contend with, including governors, fellow senators, and a pop-culture icon whose outrageous theatrics sucked all the oxygen out of the room. In the end, a plurality of Republican voters (roughly one-third) chose the latter, apparently believing that a celebrity-businessman, serial adulterer, and lifelong Democrat (with his own reality-show, no less) was the best available choice to represent the party.

To Rubio’s credit, he was one of the last men standing in the race (though the contest was never really close). He suspended his campaign in mid-March of 2016, before yours truly had a chance to cast his intended vote for him.

It’s a shame. I think the Rubio of 2016 was exactly what the GOP — and more importantly the country — needed at that point in history. If he had won the nomination, I think he would have destroyed the immensely unlikable Hillary Clinton in the general election, and ushered in a conservative era of governance that would have put our nation on a far better trajectory than what we’ve seen over the last decade. I think he not only would have delivered the same conservative wins as Trump did in his first term with Republican congressional majorities (notably on judges and tax reform), but also many, many more — including desperately needed fiscal reforms to address our skyrocketing national debt. And I’m confident it would have happened without the daily chaos, needless levels of societal polarization, and breathtaking abuses of power.

But again, that’s not the path that America took. And as the GOP dropped farther down the rabbit-hole of personality-cultism and big-government populism, Rubio — albeit awkwardly at times — just kind of went along with it.

When tasked with having to choose between what was morally and institutionally right, and maintaining his political viability, he talked a good game but reliably chose the latter. He made extraordinary capitulations to stay within his party’s good graces (including letting President Trump off the hook for Jan. 6), and as many have joked over the years, the purgatory-like expressions on his face often told the story of his despair.

But a decade into this era of a Trump-servile GOP, Rubio’s stock is on the rise again.

As Secretary of State, he has performed well beyond expectations, and established himself as the most competent (and comically overworked) member of Trump’s cabinet. In contrast with other party leaders, he speaks glowingly rather than pessimistically of America. His statesmanship and command of important issues have even impressed his ideological foes. And recent Republican polling of 2028 presidential preferences shows that Rubio is quickly catching up to Vice President JD Vance, who many on the right had all but coronated as the heir apparent to MAGA.

Of course, some of that shift is likely attributable to Vance’s political weaknesses. Truth be told, Vance has never been a particularly effective nor likeable politician. In fact, he was well on his way to losing his Senate primary in Ohio in 2022 when Trump came to his rescue in the eleventh hour. Vance went on to win that year’s general election, but by a significantly smaller margin than every other Republican on the same red-state ballot.

Vance’s most memorable moments since becoming vice president have been of him causing the Volodymyr Zelenskyy dust-up in the Oval Office, campaigning for disgraced former Hungarian president Viktor Orbán, and presumably being behind the Iran-War leaks coming out of the White House. Vance’s trademark smugness and condescending tone certainly haven’t helped.

Still, once can’t take away the positive recognition Rubio has earned for himself. Even people like me, who’d given up hope on him long ago, are starting to come around on the idea of him being a reasonable off-ramp — in a couple years — from the Trump GOP.

Is he my ideal choice? No. I’d much prefer someone who didn’t sell off parts of their soul, and call into question their commitment to the Constitution, all for political job-security. But I’m also enough of a realist to understand that those who honorably stood up to Trump, when it mattered the most, have no future in the modern Republican Party. (Trump has personally seen to that).

The rise of Rubio also raises some questions. Does he even want to run for president again? (His social-media team seems to think so). And if he does choose to run, would he do it in 2028? President Trump is immensely unpopular at the moment, and two years from now the Republican brand may be so diminished that serious GOP contenders may want to sit out the presidential cycle, and bide their time until 2032.

Personally, I hope that isn’t the case. Most politicians who make that calculation seem to miss their moment, and voters move on from them. Plus, with the Democrats still a mess, and seemingly not having learned much from their painful 2024 loss, I’m not convinced a Republican can’t win in 2028. If that door is indeed open, it would be a farce to cede the nomination to JD Vance, some know-nothing podcaster, or Kid Rock.

One also has to wonder if a sufficient number of MAGA faithfuls would support Rubio. Trump-critical conservatives like me have our own trepidation about him, but as part of the pre-Trump GOP establishment, Rubio is suspicious to them too — perhaps even more so (and they make up a larger portion of the Republican base).

There’s also Trump himself to consider. The president has a history of putting his most loyal government servants in the unenviable position of having to choose between what he personally wants, and upholding the rule of law. And if they choose the latter, he quickly throws them under the bus. If you don’t believe me, ask Mike Pence, Bill Barr, and Jeff Sessions. Heck, even Pam Bondi all but surrendering the DOJ to Trump’s bottomless appetite for retribution couldn’t save her job.

In that respect, a Rubio candidacy could be over before it starts.

Given the alternatives, I hope that’s not the case. I’m a longtime proponent of both parties putting forth their best and most qualified representatives to serve in the White House. And my gut tells me that underneath it all, Rubio still believes in the same things he believed in, and campaigned on, ten years ago. If so, that would be a major upgrade for both the party and the country.

Then again, my gut could easily be wrong. It’s happened before.

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