The Daly Weekly (8/15)
Trump's tariffs, Corey Lewandowski, King of the Hill, and more!
Hi everyone.
Welcome to this week’s Daly Weekly, where I answer whatever questions you throw my way.
Let’s get right to it…
John, do you think Trump and/or his economic advisors are really too stupid to understand who actually pays his tariffs, or is he just selling the lie that foreign countries are "pouring billions of dollars into the USA" because he believes his MAGA base is too stupid to understand what a tariff actually is? — John M.
Hi John. I believe it’s the latter. Though I think Trump had a genuine, profound misunderstanding of tariffs for many years (despite being obsessed with the concept), I find it virtually impossible that, in the year 2025 (and after multiple trade wars), he doesn’t understand who actually pays these tariffs. He’s just lying, as are his advisors.
They are, however, counting on Trump supporters (and other voters) either being too stupid to understand what’s really happening, or simply not caring enough about the topic to cause a stink over it. That was a far safer gamble prior to the election than it is now, because people are feeling the effects of Trump’s tariffs (including a big jump in wholesale prices).
Sir John: Ben Shapiro claims that the 2020 census undercounted areas that would’ve given Republicans more control in Congress. My question to you :—is this true? If so, how did this happen and was it done on purpose? — “Gerrymandering Helps Us To Come To Our Census” regards from The Emperor
I don’t know much about this topic, Emperor, but from what little I’ve read there were indeed errors during the 2020 Census (during Trump’s first term) that disadvantaged Republicans. They were later identified and reported by the U.S. Census Bureau under the Biden administration. Had the errors not occurred, Republicans may have ended up with 2-4 additional seats. I haven’t heard any evidence of it being done on purpose, but there has been some reporting that Republican areas in Texas and elsewhere didn’t take their Census-completion responsibilities as seriously as they should have.
Have you been watching the King of the Hill reboot? — Alex D.
Yes! I loved the original, and I’m three or four episodes into the new season, which I’m finding very entertaining.
I just watched the Bush Library episode (which is great), and found political kinship with Hank Hill: a traditional Republican/conservative who thinks facts matter, and finds himself incredibly frustrated with the rewriting of history and mainstreaming of ridiculous conspiracy theories on his side of the aisle. The remarks about Newsmax were particularly funny to me. Mike Judge, the show’s creator, is a national treasure.
John: Recently, Trump announced more tariffs to combat the trade deficit, but I truly don’t think Trump understands what a trade deficit is. After all, I have a trade deficit with Walmart. All of my adult life I have bought hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of goods from Wally World, but they haven’t spent a dime with me. However, this is a fair trade since Walmart has provided low cost groceries and dry goods for my family and me and greatly increased my quality of life. At the same time, Trump and all of Washington ignore the real deficit problem – the growing annual budget deficit that will cause long-term inflation and instability in the economy. Why is Trump doing this? Can you make a steelman argument for Trump’s trade and tariff policy? — Steve R.
Hi Steve. As I said in response to John M.’s question above, I think Trump — for a very long time — believed all kinds of nonsense about tariffs, for which he now knows better (and just lies about instead). Specifically in regard to trade deficits, however, I’m willing to believe that Trump still hasn’t a clue, and to this day falsely believes they’re somehow a problem for America. Your Walmart example does a good job of highlighting the folly of that belief.
Why is Trump doing this? I’ve answered this question before: He just likes tariffs.
Decades ago, something or someone intrigued him on the concept of tariffs, and he fell in love with the idea — again, without understanding how they actually work (and how they don’t work). And now, as president, he has the unilateral power (at least until the courts rein in more of it) to act like a kid in a candy store, imposing tariffs at will (with special emphasis on countries he inexplicably views in ingrates) because it’s fun for him and gives him more power and leverage over people. Just look at how Trump lights up whenever a CEO embarrassingly presents him with gifts and flattery in hopes of being exempted from his tariffs. It’s just one big game.
Thus, it’s very hard for me, Scott, to “steelman” Trump’s position on tariffs. He can’t even make a coherent, fact-based argument for why they’re good for our country… and he’s a much better salesman than I am.
Ten years ago, I could have never imagined a Republican president unilaterally employing the largest tax increase in modern U.S. history, and openly bragging about how much more money the government is taking from U.S. taxpayers, while so-called “conservative” politicians and media-pundits clap along like trained seals. But that’s where we’re at.
Lastly, you’re also right about the budget deficit, Scott. Neither party cares about it, despite it being a deficit that not only matters, but is leading us toward an entirely predictable catastrophic economic crisis. Both parties are spending us into oblivion while focusing mainly on culture-war stuff — most of which doesn’t have a political solution, but is great for TV-hits and fundraising. It’s an atrocity.
What’s going on with Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski? It’s strange to me that after all of the rumors of them having a longtime affair, they’re still working so closely together in government. — Ben G.
You’re not the only one who’s confused by these two, Ben. For some reason I was under the belief, even quite some time ago, that the affair had actually been established (with dozens of documented private flights, luxury-resort stays, etc.) and even admitted to. But I guess Noem and Lewandowski, who remain married to others, are still denying it.
The latest wrinkle is that Lewandowki is now forgoing payment to continue working with Noem at Homeland Security (well beyond his approved stay), and even presenting himself to some people as Noem’s “chief of staff.”
As comedian Mike Meyers might say, “Talk amongst yourselves.”
I don't like the voting district methodology. How about by county? What do you think? — Tim H.
Hmm. I don’t know. While I like (and would support) the idea of more congressional districts, I still think they should key off of population rather than fixed geographical boundaries. But I’m open to a compelling argument changing my mind.
Thanks everyone! You can send me questions for next week by leaving a comment in the comment section.
John: In a Gallup Poll released a couple of weeks ago, the Democratic Party showed its lowest approval rating (33%) in the 33-year history of that poll question. In addition, leading Democrats of this generation, including a couple that ran for president, left the party and have declared as independents: Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr (both now in the Trump Administration), Joe Manchin, and Kyrsten Sinema to name the most prominent ones. As a Republican, I still believe that the country is better when strong candidates of both parties are in charge of policy. While there is no doubt the energy and influence of the GOP wears a MAGA hat, the same qualities on the other side wear a strident socialist label. What is your prediction of where this is all going?
John, you are correct that most people don't have even a rudimentary understanding of trade balance and tariffs. They hear "deficit" and assume it's bad. The hear tariffs and have no idea they are taxes. Trade surpluses and deficits are neither inherently good or bad, generally. There are pros and cons, surface and hidden impacts, to both sides of that coin.