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The Mystery Continues -- A Tale of Two Polls
This is a tale of two brand new polls. If you think you’re confused now, wait till you read this.
One poll, of registered voters, was conducted by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News. It shows President Obama with a lead of six points over Mitt Romney, 49 to 43 percent nationwide. Last month the president led by only three percentage points.
Good news for President Obama.
The other poll, of likely voters, was conducted by Rasmussen Reports. It shows Romney ahead by three percentage points, 47 to 44.
Good news for Romney.
According to Rasmussen, 64 percent of those polled say they think government should cut spending to jump start the economy, a position more in tune with Romney than the president. Only 21 percent favor more government spending.
Rasmussen also reports that, “The data clearly shows why the president’s ‘you didn’t build that’ comments have created such a furor. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters believe that small business owners work harder than others. Seventy-two percent (72%) believe those who start businesses are primarily responsible for the success or failure of their own business. Most also believe that entrepreneurs create more jobs than either government programs or big business.”
Back to the WSJ/NBC News Poll: Only 27 percent of voters think the economy will improve over the next year.
Very bad news for Barack Obama; potentially very good news for Mitt Romney.
And according to the Web site DC Decoder, “That’s down eight points from last month. And that level of economic pessimism is very dangerous for an incumbent. In fact, it seems almost incredible – the political equivalent of defying gravity – for Obama to have gained ground in the horse race even as Americans’ views on the economy have grown increasingly, alarmingly, sour.
“The question is whether Obama can continue to defy gravity like this all the way to November. Given the strikingly strong levels of dislike for Romney – who trails Obama by 20 points on likability in the poll – the president may still be able to stay on top. But we can’t imagine it will continue to be this easy.”
Rasmussen also has some interesting numbers regarding Electoral College votes.
He says Romney has 167 in the “safe” category; 3 in the “likely category” and 21 “leaning” to Romney. That adds up to 191 electoral votes.
President Obama has 180 in the “safe” category; 27 in the “likely” category; and 40 “leaning” in his direction. That comes to 247.
One hundred electoral votes are too close to call. It takes 270 to win.
Anyone who thinks either candidate is going to blow the other guy away isn’t paying attention.
What I find troubling is that the election will come down to those who are still undecided. You know, the people who will get plenty of face time on television telling us how torn they are. Be assured that no journalist will report an indisputable fact: that these undecided will never be confused with anyone smart.
Do they say to themselves, “Let’s see, on the one hand we have one of the most liberal politicians in ages running for re-election – someone I don’t believe is doing much to help the economy. On the other hand, we have a businessman who I think will do a better job handling the economy and putting people back to work but I don’t really like him. My oh my, who should I vote for?”
If you like Obama, fine. If you like Romney, fine. But anyone who can’t decide between two very different candidates at this late date should not be allowed to vote.