Bad News for Barack Obama?

Another day another poll.  This one from The Hill, the Washington paper for political junkies.  It was taken on September 2, just after the GOP convention in Tampa, of 1,000 likely voters.

And the results don’t look good for Barack Obama.

Fifty-two percent of likely voters say the nation is in “worse condition” now than it was in September 2008.

Only 31 percent of voters say the nation is in “better condition” today, while 15 percent say it is “about the same.”

So, should the president be re-elected?  A majority say no.

Fifty-four percent say President Obama doesn’t deserve to be re-elected, based solely on his job performance.  Only 40 percent say he does deserve a second term.

And what about the so-called centrists, independents, the voters who, especially in a close race, each candidate needs to win in November?

Fifty-six percent are unsatisfied with Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy. Fifty-three percent say the country is worse off.

Fifty-two percent of voters who consider themselves centrists said President Obama does not deserve re-election based on his job performance.

It’s no surprise that men (57 percent) are more likely than women (51 percent) to believe the president does not deserve re-election.

According to The Hill, “The results highlight the depth of voter dissatisfaction confronting Obama as he makes his case for a second term at this week’s Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C.”

Despite all this, almost every poll shows the race too close to call.

So, the million dollar question:  How can this be?

One possibility is that the American people still like Barack Obama, and likeability goes a long way in politics.  But another possibility is that the voters may simply be lying to the pollsters.

A friend of mine, I’ll call him Sigmund, wrote this to me the other day, outline three possible reasons the polls are wrong:

“1. Those polled don’t want to be labeled racists [so they tell the pollsters they’re going to vote for President Obama or that they’re undecided].

2. Those polled are suspicious and distrustful of any perceived, institutional or political questions of any kind.

3. Those polled who are conservative either hang up or decline because they believe their vote is their vote, and none of our business, particularly in today’s toxic environment and particularly among older voters who actually will vote.”

Sigmund is an analytical guy and in this case may have the wisdom of Dr. Freud.  And if he does, if he’s on to something, that could be good news for Mitt Romney.

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  • George – CPA

    The polls are right on the money.

     

    Romney’s totally uneducated moronic comment about the 47%
    paying no Federal Income Taxes will destroy him and his cohort Ryan; who is also
    a born into wealth, silver-spoon-in-mouth punk like Romney.

     

    Romney forgot to mention that many of those 47% had LEGAL tax
    credits and deductions that resulted in them not paying any Federal income taxes. 

     

    So, it is OK for that elitist white racist Romney to reduce
    his taxes with tax credits and deductions; but, it not OK for the middle class
    and poor to reduce their tax liability with legal tax credits and deductions?  Didn’t your boy Romney just say that you
    would not want a President who paid too much in taxes because he did not use
    all the tax breaks in the tax code?

     

    Let’s see if I got this right.  It is OK for the wealthy to use all the tax
    breaks, but it not OK for the poor and middle class to use them! 

     

    Now, Romney’s ridiculous claim that 47% pay no Federal
    income taxes is almost correct; it is 46.4% – Apparently, Romney does not know
    how to round correctly. But, Romney forgot to tell the whole story, which is, why
    they paid no Federal income taxes. 

     

    The truth is that if you eliminate those with the “Legal” tax
    credits and deductions, then the actual percent of those who paid no Federal
    Income taxes or Federal Payroll taxes is 18.1%. 
    I wonder why that two-faced liar Romney did not mention that.

     

    “Essentially, yes, according to the Tax Policy Center, which
    provides data showing that in 2011, 46.4 percent of American households paid no
    federal income tax. The same data shows, however, that nearly two-thirds of
    households that paid no income tax did pay payroll taxes. And most people also
    pay some combination of state, local, sales, gas and property taxes. Overall,
    according to the Tax Policy Center, “of the 38 million tax units made
    nontaxable by the addition of tax expenditures, 44 percent are moved off the
    tax rolls by elderly tax benefits and another 30 percent by credits for
    children and the working poor.” Moreover, only 18.1 percent of American
    households paid neither federal income taxes nor payroll taxes in 2011, says
    the Tax Policy Center. Of that 18.1 percent, 10.3 percent were elderly and 6.9
    percent were non-elderly households earning less than $20,000 year, which
    include low-income families and students. About one in 20 is non-elderly with
    income over $20,000.”

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57515033-503544/fact-checking-romneys-47-percent-comment/

     

    Also, Romney forgot to mention that the middle class and
    poor pay more than 60% – 70% of all state sales, excise, and use taxes, and
    Federal FICA taxes.  It is not the top 1%
    that pays most of the state sales, excise, and use taxes, and Federal FICA
    taxes; it is the 99%.  Romney also forgot
    to mention that without the middle class and poor, there would be no US economy
    and no market to sell goods.

     

    There were 3.1 (3,100,000) millionaires in 2010. There were 236,451,723
    individuals over the age of 18 in the USA according to the 2010 US Census.  The millionaires represent 1.31% (1,300,000
    divided by 236,451,723 = .013 = 1.3%) of the total population of individuals
    over the age of 18.  These are the
    members of the Plutocracy that own most of all the wealth in the USA, at least
    93% of all the wealth.  So, of course, it
    would only be fair that they should pay at least 93% of all Federal income taxes.
    What don’t you folks, Romney and Ryan not understand?

     

    And, if I hear that unadulterated bull crap from Romney again
    about how entrepreneurs are solely responsible for innovation and the growth in
    America and how they built their businesses themselves without any help from
    the Federal Government, I will VOMIT. 

     

    Without the Federal Government there would be no US or
    global economy, no infrastructure, no internet. 
    The railroads, ship canals, highways, bridges, airports, and many
    private conventions centers, sports stadiums, funding for the 2002 Salt Lake City
    Olympics, etc. would not have happened without the hundreds of billions/trillions
    from the Federal Government.  Many of the
    wealthy families e.g., Carnegie, Cooke, Mellon, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, etc.,
    that continued to perpetuate their billions in wealth would not have existed
    without huge amounts of Federal money and land grants.

     

    All these small businesses that Romney claims made it
    without any help is just a lie and more nonsense.  Take the commercial where Jack Gilchrist
    claims he made it without any help.  Are
    Romney and Gilchrist just two-faced liars or are just too stupid to understand
    how it all works. Let’s examine the facts about Jack Gilchrist’s business and
    the related Romney commercial:

     

    “The Romney commercial featured the owner of a business in
    New Hampshire who indignantly told the President that his father and brother
    and he had worked hard to build their business. (see here:
    http://www.mittromney.com/videos ) Well, as it turns out, Jack Gilchrist, the
    business owner didn’t exactly get to where he is now without help.  In 1999, the Gilchrist Company got $800,000
    in tax exempt revenue bonds issued by the New Hampshire Business Finance
    Authority, a state program financed by the federal government. The business
    also gets Department of Defense contracts. Mr. Gilchrist received a U.S. Small
    Business Administration loan of about $500,000 together with matching funds from
    the federally funded New England Trade Adjustment Assistance Center. (see:
    http://www.unionleader.com/article/20120723/NEWS0602/707199954 ).”

     

    Romney is just a two-faced liar – who I am betting, is
    guilty of tax fraud, misuse of power as Governor of Massachusetts with contracts
    to a subsidiary of Bain Capital, Imagitas, and giving contracts to his wealthy
    Moron friends in Salt Lake City in 2002 with billions in Federal funds to
    finance the Olympics.  Romney’s VP pick
    is a criminal too; just hasn’t been caught yet.

     

    Paul Ryan arranged, behind the scenes, for a large Wisconsin
    State contract to Imagitas for his brother Tobin, who was a founder of Imagitas
    – Paul Ryan and his brother should be in jail for those crimes along with
    Romney.

     

    I think Romney and Ryan need to read closely these words
    from Republican President Abraham Lincoln, President Andrew Johnson, Mark
    Twain, Albert Einstein and Benjamin Franklin:

     

    President Abraham Lincoln, the Illinois Rail-Splitter, told
    his audiences that,

     

    “Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital.  Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could
    never have existed if labor had not first existed.  Labor is the superior of capital, and
    deserves much higher consideration.” 1861

     

    “In 1864 Lincoln cautioned a workingmen’s association
    against the “effort to place capital on an equal footing with, if not above
    labor, in the structure of the government” and he warned working people “to
    beware of surrendering a political power which they already possess, and which
    if surrendered, will surely close the door of advancement against such as
    they…”

     

    “The money powers prey upon the nation in times of peace and
    conspire against it in times of adversity. It is more despotic than a monarchy,
    more insolent than autocracy, and more selfish than bureaucracy. It denounces
    as public enemies, all who question its methods or throw light upon its crimes.
    I have two great enemies, the Southern Army in front of me and the Bankers in
    the rear. Of the two, the one at my rear is my greatest foe… corporations
    have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and
    the money powers of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working
    upon the prejudices of the people until the wealth is aggregated in the hands
    of a few, and the Republic is destroyed.”

     

     

    President Andrew Johnson warned in 1869, “an aristocracy
    based on near two billion and a half of national securities  has arisen in the Northern states to assume
    that political control which the consolidation of great financial and political
    interests formerly gave to the slave oligarchy. 
    The war of finance is the next war we have to fight.”  For years later Mark Twain coined his famous
    term, the Gilded Age.

     

    “What is the chief end of man?–to get rich. In what
    way?–dishonestly if we can; honestly if we must.”
    — Mark Twain-1871

    The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today is an 1873 novel by Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner that satirizes
    greed and political corruption in post-Civil War America.

     

    “I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate
    these great evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy,
    accompanied by an educational system which would be oriented towards social
    goals. In such an economy, the means of production are owned by society itself
    and are utilized in a planned fashion. A planned economy, which adjusts
    production to the needs of the community, would distribute the work to be done
    among all those able to work and would guarantee a livelihood to every man,
    woman and child. The education of the individual, in addition to promoting his
    own innate abilities, would attempt to develop in him a sense of responsibility
    for his fellow men, in place of the glorification of power and success in our
    present society.

    –Albert Einstein, in the Monthly Review’s first issue,
    1949.

     

    Then, I really love this statement from Benjamin Franklin
    in 1783:

     

    “All Property, indeed, except the Savage’s temporary Cabin,
    his Bow, his Matchcoat, and other little Acquisitions, absolutely necessary for
    his Subsistence, seems to me to be the Creature of public Convention. Hence the
    Public has the Right of Regulating Descents (inheritance), and all other
    Conveyances of Property, and even of limiting the Quantity and the Uses of it.
    All the Property that is necessary to a Man, for the Conservation of the
    Individual and the Propagation of the Species, is his natural Right, which none
    can justly deprive him of: But all Property superfluous (being more than is sufficient or
    required; excessive; possessing or spending more than enough or necessary;
    extravagant) to such purposes is the Property of the Publick, who, by
    their Laws, have created it, and who may therefore by other Laws dispose of it,
    whenever the Welfare of the Publick shall demand such Disposition. He that does
    not like civil Society on these Terms, let him retire and live among Savages.
    He can have no right to the benefits of Society, who will not pay his Club
    towards the Support of it.”

     

    Benjamin Franklin to Robert Morris

    25 Dec. 1783Writings
    9:138

     

    This is a follow-up to the comments made about two weeks ago
    about how President Lincoln was one of the wealthiest Presidents, which is
    incorrect. As far as I know, President Lincoln had an ENW – estimated net worth
    of less than 1 million and had less wealth than the 15 Presidents before him.  So, the first 14 US Presidents were much
    wealthier than Abraham Lincoln; and, James Buchanan – the 15th
    President – and Abraham Lincoln had an ENW of less than 1 million.

     

     

    Washington’s ENW = $525 million; John Adams’s ENW = $19
    million; Thomas Jefferson’s ENW = $212 million; James Madison’s ENW = $101
    million; James Monroe’s ENW = $27 million; John Quincy Adams’s ENW = $21
    million; Andrew Jackson’s ENW = $119 Million

    Martin Van Buren’s ENW = $26 million; William Henry
    Harrison’s ENW = $5 million

    John Tyler’s ENW = $51 million; James Knox Polk’s ENW = $10
    million; Zachary Taylor’s ENW = $6 million; Millard Fillmore’s ENW = $ 4
    million; Franklin Pierce’s ENW = $2 million

    James Buchanan’s ENW = less than 1 million; Abraham
    Lincoln’s ENW = less than 1 million – he was 16th President

    http://247wallst.com/2010/05/17/the-net-worth-of-the-american-presidents-washington-to-obama/3/

     

    Anyway, in closing, I wonder what Bernard Goldberg, Gingrich,
    O’Riley, Hannity, etc. are going to do after President Obama wins his second
    term, and the House and Senate are controlled by Democrats.

     

    Power to the working class and poor, the 99%; they will bring
    the Plutocracy to its knees.

     

  • GailWehling

    I hope and pray that you are correct!!!

  • Sally

    I have always though #1 , and think it was somewhat true in the 2008 election as well – [White] people don’t want to be perceived as racists – so they tell the pollster they are for Obama, even when they are not.

  • RICHARDS LYON

    The polls will not be able to predict the number of dyed in the wool Democrats of all colors who will express themselves by staying home on voting day.

  • George – CPA

    Once again Benard, you are blowing smoke up our arses.
     
    Wow, how the polls have changed in just 8 days.  The polls on September 10, 2012 have President Obama way ahead in the important swing states, e.g., Ohio.  So, I would have to say that it looks great for President Obama and very dismal for two-faced, switch-his-viewpoints when the political wind changes Governor Romney, and Congressman Lying Ryan.
     
    Did you happen to see 74-year-old Governor Jerry Brown’s three-mile race challenge to that literal and figurative fat-pig Governor Christie?  Too funny!  Christie who should be in jail for using State helicopters to fly to his son’s baseball games.  I bring this up only to make this point:
     
    Governor Christie and Governor Romney share something in common.  Neither Governor Mitt Romney nor Governor Chris Christie has a snowball’s chance in Hell of ever becoming President of the United States.
     
    I hate to keep bringing this up, but Benard, you don’t seem to be getting it, nor do all your right wing reactionary followers that post blogs here. 
     
    The US economy is in terrible shape because of Presidents Ronald ‘Cowboy’ Reagan, George H. Bush, and George W. Bush with their tax cuts for the wealthy and unfunded wars. The other biggest factor is the outsourcing of over 20 million jobs by the Plutocracy for the sole purpose of very cheap labor that allows billions more to be paid in dividends, and exorbitant salaries and egregious bonuses to those above the glass ceiling annually. 
     
    Do the math – over 20 million jobs have been outsourced, and over 15 million are unemployed or underemployed.  Bring those outsourced jobs back to America and there will be relatively few unemployed.  And, the job outsourcing has nothing to do with high corporate taxes and over-regulation; it is all about greed.  The Plutocracy does not care if it destroys the middle class.  And, you know that Governor Romney, Congressman Ryan, and most of the Ryans in Janesville, Wisconsin are members of the Plutocracy, as are you Bernard.
      
    Who will you folks blame after President Obama wins a second-term in November?  Maybe that empty chair?
     Who will you folks blame after President Obama wins a second-term in November? 

    Maybe that empty chair?

  • Concernedmimi

    All the hot air speeches at the DNC and the economy still sucks! Remember; it’s the economy, stupid!!!!!

  • DanB_Tiffin

    That is the way I would like to see the question stated:
    Is “the nation” better off today than it was …
    rather than
    Are “you” better off today than you were …

  • Gewineda

    To asl:
    You stated, ” I would suggest you look up the definition for the terms
    evasion/dodge/avoidance…When one seeks an extrordinary deferment it’s
    called evasion….”

    Yet no answers to me.  Romney got the same deferments that many thousands upon thousands of Vietnam era young people got – rich, poor, black, white, other rainbow colors, Christians, atheists, Mormons, non-Mormons, etc.  Why were student deferments to finish  college, and 4D deferments for the ministry, “extraordinary” in his case, but not in the case of all the non-Mitt Romneys who got the same thing?

  • Vowel_Movement

    Last night’s platform vote is prime example of the way the democrats
    work and think . 

    What a true expose of the democrats  trying to make up the purposeful omission of “G_d
    and Jerusalem as the capital of Israel”. The democrat party relented to
    the intentional slight when Ted Strickland offered up an amendment to the
    Democratic Party platform. Anthony, er ah…, excuse me, Antonio Ramón
    Villaraigosa was delightfully and totally flummoxed when he thrice brought the
    DNC convention to a vocal vote whether or not to include “G_d and Jerusalem as
    the capital of Israel” as a plank of the democrat platform. To wit and in
    reply to the vote, the voices of opposition were overridden by a two thirds
    margin after three Aye or Nay votes? Unfortunately the television “LIVE”
    cameras were rolling and to everyone except a exceptionally and totally hearing
    impaired viewer or participant at the convention, the vote was NOT a two thirds
    majority, not even close, in fact it was more like 40/60 to reject the platform
    proposed. Antonio Villaraigosa summarily overruled the vote. I guess instead of
    Roberts Rules of Order, the democrat party is still using the Karl Marx rule of
    the parties ultra left Commissars and their version of the Politburo.

    Of course the members of the central committee of the
    progressive extreme left wing is always more garish, clamorous, raucous and discordant so I
    suppose you’d have to take a few decibels’ away from the nay’s and award them
    to the yea voters who may be more a tad bit more facile, moderate and
    undemanding than their garrulous cousins who were seated amongst them in the
    peanut gallery. This is simply another example of the democrat party’s
    disregard for rules and regulations set down to prevent chaos and preserve the
    order for peaceful rule. Backdoor, secret dealings in Congress, intransigence
    of the democratic controlled Senate, Villaraigosa’s  pretextutal acclamation that the ‘Ayes’ had
    it after the third embarrassing called vote should have an anathama to any
    procedurally aware citizen in the hall and to all viewers watching on the
    televisions of the Nation. But for all to see, Villaragrosa’s tyrannical decision was accepted
    by the dem”O’lemmings as just another or as the puissant French say,
    “prêt-à-porter” example of how the minority party bosses manipulate the
    majority of the ignorant proletariat by insinuating their arrogance and their
    lust for power and control is continually exemplified in all of their
    political, moral and business dealings.

    Just remember what Obama told Dmitry Medvedev then president of
    Russia and the re-emerging Communist USSR now ruled and dictated to by former
    KBG head Putin.

    Obama: “On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this, this
    can be solved but it’s important for him [ [Putin] to give me space.”
    Medvedev: “Yeah, I understand. I understand your message about space.
    Space for you…”

    Obama: “This is my last election.[one can only hope] After
    my election I have more flexibility.” [To go back to Chicago and molt?]

    Medvedev: “I understand. I will transmit this information to Vladimir.”[Putin]

    Can America actually survive another four years of this
    subversive, dishonest, deceitful sham of a presidency and his collective of
    hate filled radical socialists looking for a free ride on someone else’s dime?
    I think not!

    Does anyone expect Obama and his apparatchiks to actually submit
    to the Constitutional mandate to leave the White House when he and they lose
    the election in November? What makes you think that Obama and his consorts have
    any honor or sense of legality when it comes to the loss of the much coveted
    power they stand to lose? Have they shown any respect for our Constitution to
    this point?

    Be
    warned!

     

     

  • Vowel_Movement

    The new NEW democrat party DnC [ dilation and curettage ]  and their [not so] secret Motto is:

    “It takes a Potemkin Villiage”  furnished throughout  with Procrustean beds for very short people with limited foresight.  B.J. thought I was gonna say foreskin!

    The DNC?  Why it’s all marijuana smoke and reflection less mirrors folks.  Remember Obama believes in Corpsemen???  Corpsemen Zombies and Vampires can’t see themselves in the mirror as it is to fogged up from their steaming B.S.

    Nothing new from the D & C, same O  same  “O”  ‘uterine scrapings’  and  B.S. from B.O. and old reliable B.J. who by the way is the Professor of Prurience Personified.

  • Gewineda

    To:  asl3676
    As our conversation below has run out of replies, I’m restating it in its entirety here, so that we can continue our conversation…

    1)From you:  Romney is likable just like a statue in the park….Don’t forget his
    accomplishments include draft dodging and tax evasion…..obviously
    accomplishments we  should all admire in a Presidential candidate…  

    2)From you in response to a post from Jeffreydan:  What am I lying about…Romney being a draft dodger or a tax cheat? You
    know nothing about Romney and would probably vote for Nixon again if he
    ran…Amazing how the Republicans can get people like you to vote
    against your own self interests….
    The only thing I’m terrified
    about is thinking about how manybitter and hateful old people are out
    there who don’t give a crap about anything but thenselves…

    3)From me in response to both of the above: 
     Perhaps
    you should define your terms and provide some facts in saying that
    Romney is a draft dodger and a tax cheat, and provide some facts.

    In fact, it would be nice to see some definitions and facts on
    “bitter and hateful old people” as well.  Where does that come from? 
    What do you have that supports your conclusion?  And how old are you?

    During the Vietnam War, Romney had, I believe, two educational
    deferments – those were perfectly legal (as a bitter and hateful old
    person of 57, I was alive back then), and given routinely to college
    students.  (There certainly were some people who went to college just to
    get those deferments – but no indication or history that Mitt was one
    of them.)  (Nor would it have been any sort of “illegal draft dodge” to
    do so.)  Mitt also was then given a deferment for ministry/missionary
    work…also perfectly and appropriately legal, and not even something
    that “everybody” did to get out of the draft.  He was an active Mormon. 
    That was one of the things required then (and now) of young Mormon
    grads.

    Mitt spent 2 1/2 years in the mission field in France, an act
    actively encouraged of all Mormon young people and not just Mitt
    Romney.  As I was alive back then, I know that these deferments were
    perfectly legal, too.

    When those deferments ended, he went up for the draft.  His draft
    lottery number was high, and so he did not get chosen.  Even that wasn’t
    to do anything for Mitt Romney…they picked those birthdates at
    random, for cats’ sake.  And yes, I know this because, as a bitter and
    hateful old man, I was there then, too.  My own draft number was also
    high, although not extraordinarily so…I think it was in the low 100’s,
    but that was enough.  And that was the year that Nixon went to an
    all-volunteer army, so after the draft lottery, they quit drafting
    people, and so no one who turned 18 in 1973 got drafted – according to
    my old, bitter, hateful and undoubtedly sorry memory, that is.

    “Tax cheat?”  I respectfully submit that as there has not been a
    single instance of Romney getting audited or getting found to be
    “cheating”on his taxes.  Unless you have a different definition, I
    believe that saving money by using the Byzantine, screwy tax code is not
    “cheating”.  However, if your definition is different than that…that
    “cheating” is using the tax law but is still somehow evil…then lets
    make an example of all of the liberal Hollywood types, the liberal icons
    at Berkshire Hathaway, Bill Gates, etc., too, who have done nothing
    more than what Mitt has done.  “Cheating”, I say, is where you do
    something that is not in the tax code or not permitted by the tax code. 
    You break the law.  Romney has not.

    In addition, Romney gives away more money by far to church and
    charity than most people who really are trying to cheat and break the
    law are trying to hide illegally from the govt.

    Oops, time for my dementia pill.

    Oh, and I voted for Nixon the second time around.  Too young in
    1968.  Knowing what I know now – I probably wouldn’t have.  McGovern, at
    least, had to work with a legislature, which would have acted as a brake
    against the more wild-eyed liberal actions (as it has with B.O.).  And
    George, at least, treated his colleagues in the Senate with respect. 
    Heck, he and Barry Goldwater, opposites though they were, were friends,
    respected each other, and worked together on legislation sometimes to
    get stuff done that would give some liberals and conservatives both some
    stuff to chew on.

    And yes, I know that because I was alive then, says the decrepit old man…4)Then from you again:  When you start using the phrase “perfectly legal” I, as an attorney,
    understand that you cannot defend the ethical basis for one’s actions.
    Whether something is legal or not cannot be determined unless one is
    charged with a crime.
    As someone a few years older than you I can
    tell you that some rich kids like Romney avoided the draft by claiming
    4D status. He didn’t have to go to France, obviously a tough assignment,
    he chose to. Muhammed Ali claimed religious exemption and was convicted
    of a crime…What’s the difference between the two?5)So, in reply:Nice to know you are an attorney, too, asl3676.  And even older than I am.  32 years of general practice beginning 1980.  How many for you?  No criticism or “ranking” implied there – just asking.As you may recall, student deferments were routine, allowing a person to finish a four-year degree.  This survived the establishment of the draft lottery in 1969, and was eliminated only in 1970-71.  Although the 4D ministry exemption was continued as it had existed before, up to the elimination of the draft by Melvin Laird in January of 1973, that didn’t matter for Romney, as he had used his 4D exemption between 1966 and 1969.Romney is now 65, I believe, having been born in 1947 and considering that he would therefore be 8 years older than my age of 57.  He would have been 18 in 1965, when student deferments were virtually automatic.  Mitt was student deferred between 1965 and 1966, when he was a freshman at Stanford, and then again after he returned home and attended BYU.Mitt went on his 30 month foreign missionary trip in 1966.  30 months was and is the traditional time period.  While “rich kids like Romney” sometimes would escape the draft by claiming 4D status, one must also consider the cultural and religious background of the individual.  While being a missionary in the LDS is not “required” by the LDS, it is, in fact, a very significant rite of passage, one for which the missionary receives no pay, and is traditionally done by a vast majority of LDS kids.  Most LDS missionaries save up money during high school to help them survive during the traditional missionary work.  Most LDS boys in their late teens and early 20s serve as missionaries.  Very many girls do, too.  The tradition of doing mission work in the LDS church is not only culturally significant, but obviously does not exist as an excuse to avoid the draft…it predated Mitt’s own service as a missionary for more than 20 years.  His father and many members of his family preceded him in doing this same service.  Given the cultural and religious context, family history, tradition, and Mitt’s obvious devotion to the LDS over his lifetime I am aware of no evidence that he went about doing missionary work just to avoid the draft.  In fact, his student deferments totalled about three years altogether.  In the late 1960’s, the Mormon church reached an agreement with the government in which fewer Mormon missionaries would be 4D exempt, with only a certain number allowed per “parish”, or whatever they call their local groupings.  However, Mitt, with a residence in Michigan, where his father was governor, did not belong to a very big parish, LDS members being far fewer in this state, and therefore the 4-D deferment was virtually automatic.  Money or position had about -0- to do with it…it was the size of the local LDS community.   See http://web.archive.org/web/20091031020120/http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/specials/romney/articles/part1_side_2/?page=full.Mitt started attending BYU in early 1969.  He married Ann in March of 1969.  The draft lottery was instituted by Nixon in late 1969, but the traditional deferment for students continued at that time until 1970-71.  Unless *every* college student at that time is to be defined as a draft dodger, labeling Mitt as one because he did what most students were also able to do is just not fair unless all of them are to be identically labeled.  And if you believe that, state reasons and facts, please, as I have attempted to do.When student deferments for the draft were eliminated by 1970-71, Mitt had a very high number in the draft lottery.  If he had had a low number, he would have had to go.  His high one was the final pass from the draft at that time.  Muhammad Ali’s case was different – he did not assert a 4D deferral.  He asserted a  conscientious objector exemption.  He didn’t say he was a minister, but said he objected as a matter of conscience (which can be a religious basis, but not always).  He asked for an exemption, which is permanent, not a deferral, which delays draft status.  And even though he was initally convicted, and barred from boxing as well, his conviction was overturned by the US Supreme Court, so to the extent that one states that there *are* similarities between Romney and Ali, note that Ali ultimately won, and that perhaps the same benefit of the doubt should go to Romney.Also, as an attorney, as well as an adjunct instructor in several graduate level courses at a local university, including Business Ethics (again, not trying to pull rank, and that doesn’t mean I can’t be questioned, or wrong), I agree that “perfectly legal” does not automatically mean ethical.  However, when one is “following” the law…absent using it to continue a rank unethical act such as slavery, for example…one is more likely than not to be acting ethically.  No crap about which school of ethics, like deontological ethics, value theory or utilitarianism…there are so many.   I asked for examples and facts simply because from what I have seen so far, no one has been able to, or has been bothered, to explain how Mitt’s legal acts, in following our admittedly byzantine internal revenue code, constituted a violation of ethics.”Tax evader” as a term implies both legal and ethical violations.  From a legal standpoint, I’ve seen no violations there.  As to ethics…well, that is why I asked for facts.  I was running for judge all summer, and didn’t have the time to spend to examine the tax issue, which is a much harder answer than “draft dodger”.  Now that I lost in the primary, I’m interested in the extent to which “tax evasion” could accurately be levied on Mitt, either/or legally or ethically.  I just haven’t seen it yet.

  • asl3676

    I’m from New York and now live in California….if dead people are voting who are they voting for Repubs or Dems? Maybe you can do some polling at a local cemetery…LOL

  • Jeffmiles1

    Sigmund’s option 1 is most certainly in play. Many white voters voted Obama in 2008 because of white guilt. That’s over now, but they won’t tell pollsters. I predict a 1980 style result, while the MSM and msnbc will claim to be shocked! Shocked I say!

  • Paul Courtney

    Bernie:  Looking at polls, like looking at the sun, can be blinding.  The big story this week is the overt racism of the DNC.  Did you know that it is (gasp) requiring picture id for admission, where they vote on stuff like platform amendments?  As we ALL know, the poor and minorities are disproportionately forgetful about carrying id.  It’s hard enough taking voice votes with that dog whistle ringing in your ears.  This voter suppression and brazen race bigotry should not stand!  

  • Walt

    It may be bad news, Berny, but the fact remains, Obama is likeable and although he doesn’t have the economy up and running, people will vote for him because  he’s cool.  Romney has to make the case that it will be another four more years of failure.  Obama’s latest campaign ads are identical to his ads in 2008.  Romney should be going after these ads with a vengeance.  Romney could be more aggressive than he’s been.  He really has to show the American people he’s right for the job and he’ll get it done…

    • asl3676

      How can Romney show he’s right for the job when he won’t tell anyone the specifics? Other than tax cuts for the upper brackets, which have never been shown to produce jobs, what is his plan?
      What is the difference between Romney’s plan and Bush’s?

      • Jeffreydan

          Governor Romney has provided more details, both in interviews and on his website, and he also has a successful track record. We’ve been through this before, so if you still don’t get it have one of your teachers explain it to you using flash cards.    
         
          BTW, despite your inability to do any better, you should stop lying that the tax cuts are for only rich taxpayers. 

        • asl3676

          Where on Romney’s website or in what interview does he say which deductions he will eliminate to pay for his tax cuts? The only comment he has made is that he’ll look into it after the election….I realize you loved Bush and want more of the same…GO FOR IT..

          • Jeffreydan

              What the hell is your problem? I got really tired of President Bush’s overspending long before 2008, and it’s ludicrous to believe that Governor Romney will do the same.

              Seriously, why does it even matter that YOU have concerns about Romney? First of all, a person truly interested in debating the merits of a candidate wouldn’t have already picked his opponent. Second, he wouldn’t debate so dishonestly.
              If you don’t like my saying that, then stop saying crap like Romney evaded taxes (ad hominem accusation is not fact), evaded the draft (in 1970 was ready to serve but wasn’t called to duty. “Deferment” is not the same as “dodge”), and will cut taxes for only rich people.

              This is getting ridiculous. Either grow up and bring something to the discussion or get out.   

          • asl3676

            You were so tired of Bush’s overspending? So you did what? Vote Republican in 2004 and 2008?
            I would suggest you look up the definition for the terms evasion/dodge/avoidance…When one seeks an extrordinary deferment it’s called evasion….Dont you think all the dead and wounded would have rather been hanging out in Paris during the war?

  • brendan horn

    Polls and the people that answer them are often contradictory. For example, we see polls that say many people do not believe the economy is Obama’s fault, because the president only has limited control over the economy. At the same time, we see that many of these same people still believe the economy is George Bush’s fault. This is an obvious contradiction. The liberal media and politicians are spreading this contradiction as their main argument to get Obama reelected. If the economy was Bush’s fault, then it should also obviously be Obama’s fault. 

  • FloridaJim

    I pray the public awakens to our national nightmare and ousts Obama and all his democratic friends. We must the start at once holding the remaining dolts to a, higher standard of performance with quarterly appraisals of them. We need Term Limits and a Balanced Budget to begin.

    • asl3676

      If you are having nightmares I would suggest you seel medical or psychiatric help as soon as possible…Perhaps a picture of Ronald Reagan next to your bed would be helpful…

      • Paul Courtney

        To deal with our national nightmare, we seek an electoral remedy.  The diagnosis?  The patient will remain in serious , but hopefully stable, fiscal condition until 1st wk of Nov., followed by marked improvement after the cause is isolated and returned to academia. 

  • CentralScruntinizer

    Keep feeding the rubes, Bernie.  Being an honest broker isn’t what feathered your retirement nest.  

    Whatever you do, don’t let on that everyone at Fox News knows that the same nuanced internal polling that gave Nancy Pelosi the reality about 3 months before the 2010 midterms  that she was going to lose 35-65 seats  is now predicting that barring major economic or political event, Obama is tracking to net 330-350 electoral votes.    But that’s not what people who have been living in the Fox/Rush/Breitbart.Com bubble are expecting, because they’ve been led to believe they are running against a deeply partisan Commie/Nazi/Kenyan sleeper agent.  

    Only problem: the other 68% of the Country, even if they are conflicted on Obama, lives in reality where the truth about Obama and his record is mixed, but not without real merit, and the historically catastrophic situation he inherited from the GOP and Bush cannot be drowned out by plugging your ears and yelling “stop blaming Bush!”    At the same time, the truth about Romney is totally unknowable, since his strategy is trying to run as the generic republican rather than specify his agenda in any detail.   Bain looks awful for him the closer it is scrutinized, Taxes look bad for him, but the MA governors turn actually has some credible accomplishment! But he’s had to repudiate everything he did or said as the ultra moderate Governor…   Not a recipe for nailing a message other than, “lets go cut the top tax rate more and deregulate more, and see if we can really get a depression next time!”

    But keep pumping the fiction in, Bernie – That, and doubling down on everything O’Reilly says, are where you make your money, so keep getting paid.   Just please be sure to circle back to this post on November 7th and explain why you deliberately  kept inflating the false hopes.

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/ICU66FLHH72BCVOWM6BZ45ROKQ THE

      Mr. Scrutinizer,

      Remove head from what you think is a “hole in the ground”, since the smell doesn’t seem to affect you.  You are one of those people who actually believes that Obama will win Virginia and N.C.  Here’s news.. NO way, NO how is he going to get 28 electoral votes from those two states.  You can dream all you want…  Your the typical flat-earther, holding on to “hope and change”.. stuff it!

      • CentralScruntinizer

         On the up side, that was actually a pretty polite tell-off as those things go.  Thanks for that.

        And yup, I support Obama with some real hesitations over legitimate issues like NDAA, Geitner’s total lap dog behavior to banks, etc…  

        But Romney v Obama isn'[t the issue at hand – It’s Bernie and on a much larger scale Breitbart, Rush, Fox etc being intentionally disingenuous with facts.    The one I’m focusing on here is that the real internal polling from both campaigns and the real analysis that’s widely seen by all news nets doesn’t reflect a close horse race at all.    That’s not partisan spin, it’s reality, and sometimes it cuts against the left too.    Two years ago that same analysis showed the GOP poised to knock the Dems out of the box in the mid-terms.   

        If you have a look, today Romney’s team pulled TV buys out of PA and Michigan, which is a pretty good indicator that they are ceding some swing states already (yes, they could put media buys back in there later, but right after the conventions is when you go all in with media) 

        The point is that there’s not much chance that Bernie, a Fox contributor, isn’t well aware of the much more complex and accurate polling, but he draws more hard right traffic by pretending that it’s gloom and doom for Obama.  

        • Drew Page

          I’m waiting for the only poll that counts, the last one on election day.    We will see once and for all who the majority of voters want.

    • EddieD_Boston

      What day is it in your little world? I guess we should all tune into MSNBC so we can get a balanced take on daily events.

      Wow. Typical liberal, often wrong but never in doubt.

      Ooooops, was what I just said racist?

      • Bob Hadley

        “…often wrong but never in doubt.”

        It has a nice ring to it.  That line should be the title to your autobiography.  :)

      • CentralScruntinizer

         Eddie, I know dealing with facts and objective reality isn’t your strong suit, but here are some more facts that will probably gather dust outside your Wingnut fiction bubble in Southie:  The GOP pulled media buys out of PA and Michigan last week, Nate Silver, who is the best of the public poll analysts has Obama a 77% favorite to win, and to win substantially.   The market at Intrade has moved Obama to a 58% favorite,  and GOP strategists are publicly conceding that they are behind: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80949.html

        Could things change between now and Nov?  Sure.  But at some point you might want to look around and realize that you’re soaking in GOP Bullshit and telling everyone else they smell.

    • asl3676

      Bernie is feeding the haters for a living and in the republican world that justifies saying or doing anything….I find it sad to see the amount of hate Bernie’s readers generate for government programs they use…and this hate only comes out when you have a Dem in the White House… 

      • Drew Page

        There you go again with the name calling.    Why do you feel compelled to call Bernie’s article “feeding the haters” and why do confine them to the ‘republican world’ ?    Most  in the Republican party don’t “hate” government social programs.  What we do dislike intensely is the abuse of such programs by people who don’t qualify for such benefits and by government officials who use such programs to buy votes for themselves.  I have yet to hear or read about a single Republican elected official who wants to abolish Medicare, Social Security or Medicaid.   Many Republicans however, do see the need to reform these programs and the way they are funded in consideration of greater longivity of beneficiaries so that they can remain viable for future generations.

        • asl3676

          Everyone is against abuse of government programs..that’s not a policy nor is it a reason to vote for one person over another..You oppose those who use social programs to “buy” votes but don’t seem to oppose those who use tax cuts to “buy” votes…
          I know you don’t think politicians are going to state that they want to end medicare, medicaid and Social Security… Fixing these programs involve a combination of increasing the amount of wages taxed,means testing and increasing the age requirement…

      • Gewineda

        asl:

        The problem is that many people who believe the other side are “feeding the haters” don’t believe that happens when their own side is in charge.  “This hate only comes out when you have a Dem in the White House?”  Really?

        I’ve seen plenty of hate come out no matter who is in the White House.  I may not have been W’s biggest fan, after 8 years, but there was so much of it then against his administration you needed a snorkel and floaties  just to breathe clean air. 

    • Bob Hadley

       ” Just please be sure to circle back to this post on November 7th and explain why you deliberately kept inflating the false hopes. ”

      Haven’t you been reading Bernie’s columns?  Bernie already set the table in case Pres. Obama wins.  In that event, the voters are stupid and/or have been bought out by getting free stuff. 

      And don’t ever forget that the liberal elistists think anyone who disagrees with them is defective and/or stupid!  :)

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/PPL2AXPXJMWPEJWFN34MPC5RNY terry

    BAD NEWS FOR OBAMA   THEY FOUND HIS  TAIL

  • Mari Jo O’Neill

    There is nothing that this President can say to me to give him my vote. I didn’t vote for him the first time because I thought he was a fraud and a liar.  He has now proved
    those facts. The “liberal media” were like his groupies at a rock concert. They never ever told people the real truth’s or facts and they did know them. I beleive that they thought it was a good ideea to elect a “black” president and it probably nade them feel good. Lets look at the last three years and see if there has been hope & change.  The  slogan of yes we can should be the Republican’s new slogan because I beleive that they can beat Obama.  The Democrats look for any reason to use “race ” as a parthof their platform because it is a disgrace to the people of this Country. If I do not like Obama’s policies they call me a racist and I find that pathetic. They also use “race” as a reason to disapprove “voter Id” I resent that because if someone illegally votes it cancels out my vote and that is totally wrong. Voting is a privilege and it should not be abused and the lst election we had the SEIU, the Acorn Groups, and the Black Panthers trying to use intimidation on voters. The Acorn group was proved to be a party to trying to get votes from people who were not eleigible this was in 14 states, so where do the Dems think about this because all of the votes they wanted went to Democrats.

  • Gerpac

    A few comments. This evening my wife and I enjoyed dinner with neighbors who voted for BO in 2008. All (6) went to see 2016. All vowed not to vote for him this time around. We have not seen the movie but guess we should at this time.

    I find it difficult to understand why Obama’s favorable ratings are as high as they are. Based on his miserable handling of the economy his unfavorable ratings should be much higher than they are. Is it because there are millions of clueless people out there? This guy is an absolute disaser. The clountry cannot survive another four years of this incomptent.

    • Mari Jo O’Neill

      Gerpac: I can tell you it is because there are the people who think tht he is great because he gives them “free stuff”. These are the stupid “vote” and they will be out in full force in November, probably followed by the Black Panthers who are nothing but thugs.  These are the people that are part of the Obama voting bloc.  We need to get him out & soon.

    • Frederick Theobald

       The Obama government is an “ineptocracy”.

      Ineptocracy_(in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) – a system of government
      where the least
      capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the
      members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded
      with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing
      number
      of producers.

       

    • asl3676

      Maybe you should find new friends who aren’t bitter and hateful….Good thing you were able to pay for dinner with your Social Security money….

      • Drew Page

        There’s that hate thing again.   Anyone who doesn’t agree with you is bitter, hateful and oh yeah, racist (you left that one out).  And why the cheap shot about this guy paying for dinner with his Social Security money?  Is that what you believe the source of everyone’s income is (or should be)?

        • asl3676

          Explain why polling shows that a majority of seniors on Medicare oppose Obamacare? I’ve asked this to many people and have never gotten a reasonable answer….sorry for the cheapshot…

          • Jeffreydan

              You asked an honest question, and if I may offer 2 cents…
              Assuming the poll is sampling evenly, I’d say it’s most likely that the seniors in question have already personally experienced some of Obamacare’s consequences, such as doctors no longer treating Medicare patients.
              At first I guessed that they didn’t like learning about Obamacare’s taking money away from Medicare, but I’m thinking that’s not the case.       

          • asl3676

            Seniors polled against Obamacare from the beginning of the debate …Why? Because many dont give a crap about anyone but themselves…

          • Jeffreydan

              If you think selfishness is the only reason for someone opposing Obamacare, you’re in no position to expect a reasonable answer.

              Sorry to bust your utopian fantasy, but the democrats didn’t pass Obamacare because they’re selfless. It’s very simple: they want more power, the Constitution be damned.

          • asl3676

            Now that you are to the pont that you are using bumper sticker cliches I would say it’s time to rest my case…

          • Jeffreydan

               Feel free to rest your case right after you mop up all the stoplisteningtofoxnews, bitterandhateful, votingagainstyourinterests, archiebunker, and backtobushspolicies you left on the floor.  

  • Randy

    Didn’t the same thing happen with the Reagan/Carter election polling?  They actually had to quit polling b/c they couldn’t find a way to ask the questions to make it look close!

    • EddieD_Boston

      The Boston Globe had Martha Coakley up by 15 points over Scott Brown 2 weeks before the special election to fill Kennedy’s senate seat.

    • kayakbob

      I don’t know about the polling that fall of 1980 with Raegan/Carter, but I am old enough to remember Carter drawing huge crowds. I was in college and went to one with my [then] girlfriend…a huge Carter supporter.  As close as the week before the election the media (ABC, NBC, CBS was all we had!) commented on those crowds repeatedly.

      On election night, I remember sitting on my g/f’s couch watching the returns. It was rather early in the evening…8pm maybe?..and it seemed to be overwith at that point. My poor g/f sat there watching the TV and she said, “I just don’t understand how anyone could vote for Reagan? Who would do that?”

      “…….me.” 

      End of relationship.  LOL

  • Dan Starr 0908

    Mr. Goldberg:
    PLEASE add the book, “Leading from Behind” especially chapter 5 to your must read before election. You’ll recognize immediately the president’s feelings and standing on Isreal.
    Thanks, Dan Starr

  • Wallaceflint

    Hi Bernie,
       I’m glad to see that kind of news about Barack Obama. Just the idea of no more years with that guy in th White house, is really great! I want pass your message on by e-mail to my other conservative friends. I’m 84 years old and would at least live  long enough to see Mitt Romney win! He has not only the business experience, but also governmental experience on the state level- like FDR and Ronald Reagan. Both were governors. This means working on budgets and dealing with legislators at the state level. People ought to stop and realize this.
       I have been putting out a personal newsletter showing this matter. and generally  fighting against Obama. It Has become a caue to me! I’m able to reach about 40-50 at a time. I keep trying. By the way what is your e-mail address?
     
                                                    In God We Trust!
                                                   Wally Flint- Boonville, NY
     

    • asl3676

      Do you have a picture of Arcie Bumker on the front of your newsletter? Your newsletter will make a big difference in how many many votes Romney loses New York by in November…

  • Scostudio

    I’m not sure Mr. Sigmund is right. Serious research take care of false or concealed responses from the voters. I think most people that voted for Obama in 2008 would like to vote for him again but they are been discouraged by his economic performance. As the election approaches they will start making up their minds and we will see, if that is the case, a convergence between vote intention and perceived performance

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/PPL2AXPXJMWPEJWFN34MPC5RNY terry

    OBAMA MITE WANT TO LOSE & RETIRE,  THEY ARE LAZY & SHIFTLESS.

  • Mcweijun

    Fo Mo Fo Sho Mo Fo!

  • venter

    Bernie I agree with your friend Sigmund.  The polls don’t make sense.  I also believe women and the black voters know what is going on. We are all trying to make a dollar out of 99 cents.   Blacks could not be happy with all the racist stuff and women have brains and not ovaries in their heads.  Clint said it right “you can vote Obama out”  If Romney gets in and doesn’t do the job  he gets voted out We are not racists……..We are Americans and don’t like being divided

  • Brushfour

    One recent poll now has Obama upside down with the women vote.  His postitive amongst that group have dropped significantly in the last 15 days.  I imagine Obama still maintaining 90%+ within in the black vote and to some degree in the Hispanic vote, really helps keep the numbers higher or closer in the swing states.  No other democrat (white) would enjoy such an advantage.  Rasmussen of course now has Romney up 48-44% nationally.  THAT represents a several million vote lead within the Popular vote.

    • asl3676

      One recent poll….is that like “some would say”? One recent poll says that the majority of seniors on medicare oppose Obamacare….doesn’yt make sense but makes for a talking point on Fox News..

      • Drew Page

        NO, asl, it’s more like Harry Reid’s scientic explanation, “Word’s out…”

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/Z42PFVI33W6LIWAZFX4GGTINBY William R M

    The polling on the election itself reminds of Reagan in 1980. Then Carter consistently had a lead, although never (as I recall) a majority. Working for Reagan, I boiled at the thought that John Anderson would effectively re-elect Carter. Of course, Reagan won handily — a blow-out really as, apparently, most of the polled “undecided” voted for Reagan. So the simple lesson is that when an incumbent President is polling below 50%, he’s in trouble. Undecided are that way in part because they don’t like the incumbent and, for a variety of reasons, are not prepared to commit to the challenger. Ultimately, they will vote for a change more often than not.

  • Brakes172

    Whether people want to admit it or not, government must be run like a business or a household. You cannot run up debt that you can never overcome. It’s a house of cards. Obama proposed a budget and didn’t get a single positive vote from either side~!! So he did nothing after that. Not a budget proposal after that. Romney has a plan and that is based on business guidelines. Decisions have to be prudent and fiscally responsible.

  • underwriter1

    One does wonder about that 30% who say things are better today than 4 years ago.  These, I suspect, fall into two categories:  1) staunch liberal Democrats, who would say things are better under Obama even if they lost all they had and were wandering the streets homeless, barefoot and wearing rags and 2)  those who actually are better off due to the extension of unemployment compensation, the extension of COBRA health insurance, the prospect of free health insurance under Obamacare, the food stamp program, rent subsidies and Obama’s waiver of deportation for illegal aliens under age 30, who were brought into the country by parents who were also illegal aliens.    

    It is understandable that a majority of those on government assistence would prefer the candidate who will promise to maintain and expand such programs.

    • asl3676

      Does that include seniors who are on social security and medicare? If so, why do all the Archie Bunker types vote Republican?

      • underwriter1

        For the record, I don’t consider Social Security and Medicare to be government assistance  programs.   Beneficiaries of these programs paid into them during their working careers.   I do consider Medicaid, food stamps, rent subsidies and welfare checks to be government assistence programs.   those receiving these benefits are not paying federal income taxes.  I also consider the money spent providing for illegal aliens to be government assistance and an illegitimate use of taxpayer money.

        • asl3676

          Morally, I agree with you about Social Secuity and Medicare..Financially, the benefits for many citizens far exceed their contributions….

  • POC247

    Polls aren’t reliable and there’s no way of following up on who truly responded. Just look at cars these days…very few bumper stickers where I live. Few if any declaring for OBAMA. Who wants to be associated with such a pitiful, dismal record? Few if any declaring Romney. Who wants to risk their car being vandalized and “racist” written on it. I suspect most voters are quietly waiting for election day. They will speak with their vote. I think the turn-out will be large.

    • Brakes172

      It’s cowardice and un-productive to sit on the sidelines and not try to engage the obama fans to find out what they think he has done for the USA. We have to fight this with intelligent dialog. My romney signs are on order. He is destroying us from within by undermining our finances, military, world relationships, … reeks of communist leaning.

      • asl3676

        Thank you Archie Bunker….good to see you’re alive and well….

  • john nazzaro

    Sigmund might have some understanding of basic political math too (as the President’s campaign no doubt does): the undecided are at least 10% in virtually every poll. They ALWAYS break against an incumbent, usually by a ratio of 6o/ 40. However the trend line (see Reagan vs. Carter) is elastic: it can be as much as 80% for the challenger. Romney is no Reagan, but the basic math still works to his advantage: he wins regardless of high vs. low end trajectory against the incumbent-assuming the electoral college breakout is reflective of the popular vote reality (which it historically usually is). And the 10% undecided is historically low, and likely-perhaps for all the reasons Bernie notes-understated.  It probably takes the form of a “leans Obama”voter-a soft commitment which usually reflects an uninvolved responder who doesn’t yet really know Romney well enough to draw a conclusion, but who wants to reply to the poll. Simply put, the incumbents support is usually overstated in virtually every election, until the undecideds have enough comfort to accept the challenger-he is no longer an unknown quantity (that’s why debates are significant). Carter was even up with Reagan going into the last 5 days. And got clobbered when the smoke cleared.

  • Concernedmimi

    We belong to government……….That’s the stupidest statement I’ve ever heard! And, furthermore, I guess all O supporters are going ‘forward’ without GOD, since they left HIM out of their platform. Oh yeah, they’ve got Obama..

  • EddieD_Boston

    Did any of you liberals happen to catch the results of the 2010 mid-terms? I know you’re smarter than the rest of us but wasn’t it a complete repudiation of the leftist/progressive/statist/looney fringe agenda?

    • asl3676

      Were Obama or Romney on the ballot in 2010? I must have missed it…

      • Jcatbbug

        Obama was

      • JRawl

        I’m sure you did, because you’re a freakin’ idiot!

    • http://shawmut.blogspot.com/ Dave O’Connor

      2010 was the public dipping their toes in the water. Now comes the full plunge.
      Of course, in Boston, I can only hope word gets behind the lines to me.

  • BonnieU2

    I do not pay attention to the Polls because numbers can be manipulated and questions asked in a way that makes the answers unreliable. The pundits give me a headache trying to “read the signs and predict the future” like Gypsy tea leaf readers! The votes will tell us who wins, and even that is unreliable. There are 30,000 deceased registered voters in North Carolina alone, and that’s just one state. Apparently the RNC and Romney Campaign have not been able to reach out to those voters in their graves because they ALL vote for the Democrats. I don’t think a Picture/Obituary would qualify as Voter ID, except in Eric Holder’s world!

    • asl3676

      Can you tell us how many of these 30,000 deceased registered voters actually voted? …There are hundreds of thousands deceased registered voters but little evidence that any votes are cast…..

      • RMDaley

        The Democrat ward bosses do it for them.  You live in Illinois and you should know that.

  • http://www.facebook.com/ted.wight Ted Wight

    Obamerika or Team America

     

    “And as president, I…reject the idea that if we just reward
    those at the top, that somehow that’s going to work for everybody – ‘cause that
    hasn’t been how America
    got built.”  This quote, which reinforces
    and upstages President Obama’s by now well-known and sometimes ridiculed phrase,
    “You didn’t build that”, was published in Parade
    Magazine (inserted in many Sunday newspapers on September 2, 2012, page 9
    and 10).  It represents the antithesis of
    the American way;  those “at the top”
    haven’t been “rewarded” by the “we” or anybody, it has been their individual
    stories which incorporate intelligence, experience, passion, tenacity and luck,
    combined with America’s innovative financial industry.  All this within a sometimes chaotic system of
    free enterprise built upon the brilliance of our Founding Fathers’ political
    inventions.  The few “at the top” is
    exactly “how America got built” –  they
    began at the bottom in the scrum of Team America  – 
    Thomas Edison, Alexander Graham Bell, J. P. Morgan,  George Washington and George Washington Carver,
    Eli Whitney, Benjamin Franklin, Henry Ford, Herman Hollerith, John D.
    Rockefeller and Bill Gates, to name a few. 
    None of this was done by bureaucrats in Washington, D. C., but by
    individuals seeking to better themselves and their neighbors who rise to the
    top in competition with everyone else in what is the magical chaos of free
    enterprise.

     

    This highlights the clear and stark choice in the upcoming
    election.  Do we want a country governed
    by an oligarchy of elites led by a single man who wants to take a hard left
    from the foundations upon which this country was built?  Or do we want to continue on the zig-zagging
    path which has led to the most prosperous, most free country in the history of
    the world?  With that comes the fits and
    starts from the chaos of freedom – and free enterprise, the democracy of
    commerce.  This leader, Mitt Romney, has
    a history of hiring smart people and working with them to success.

     

    On September 3, 2012, the U.S. population was 314,295,369 as estimated by the U.S. Census
    Bureau.  The human body contains
    4,600,000,000,000,000 strands, give or take since it’ll take a long time to
    count each one, of Deoxyribonucleic
    acid (DNA).  About 99.9% of it is
    common from body to body, leaving approximately 4.6 trillion of the little
    buggers being different from person to person. Taken all together, that’s a lot
    of difference from U. S.
    person to U. S.
    person, diversity of you will.

     

    This is a lot of data with way too many variables for any computer or mega-systems of combined
    computers to be able to model (not to mention the impossibility of humans being
    even able to agree on what are the variables). 
    Yet government experts are trusted to write rules by which we are to
    live our lives by predicting how such rules will cause each of us to act.  A dictionary full of acronymic government
    agencies determine what we should buy, what we should eat, what we should wear,
    what we should drive, where and in what we should live, with whom we should associate,
    where we should…well, just about everything we do.  These rules micromanage our lives.  This is labeled “social policy”, a bed rock
    of the Democratic Party belief system. 
    Any social policy gives control over the freedoms of the individual to a
    small number of powerful elites.  Yet
    today our government elites can’t even predict with accuracy economic activity,
    nor the weather nor even corn prices in any predictable way.  You and I could guess with better
    accuracy.  (Even a dead clock is accurate
    twice a day!)  

     

    In 1955 about 4,100,000 babies were born in the United States.  Of them only .00024% was Steve Jobs.  You double that when Bill Gates is added.  Who could have identified either of them at
    birth to become who they became?  Does
    this argue for more central control, maybe eliminating the consequential impact
    of people like these two, or the messiness of free enterprise with the
    “survival of the fittest” achieving prosperity for society as a whole as have
    Jobs and Gates.  President Obama chose
    Solyndra, free enterprise chose Apple.

     

    Medicare rules, regulations and laws consist of over 150,000
    pages of intricate, many times incomprehensible words, and this even before
    ObamaCare.  At any time any participant
    in Medicare is breaking some law; probably a felony. 

     

    Is this really what we as a society desire or deserve?  These laws were written by a small number
    individual human beings trying to predict or direct the future behavior of
    human beings.  Belief in this central
    control is like believing in an unseeable God.

     

    Yet that will be Obamerika.  Where the government eliminates dignity and
    substitutes dependency.

  • Kelleydavid86

    Sounds like the ” over performing ” in the polls. Like we saw in Wisconsin. ,)

  • Ben Dolce

    Many, if not most, of the polls over sample democrats. It is not as close as the polls are saying for that fact alone.

    • EddieD_Boston

      Yup, Romney wins handily. Liberals really are a deranged bunch. They’re seriously convinced Obama will prevail.

      But they’re smarter than the rest of us. Lol

      • asl3676

        Not smarter…just better educated and less apt to play the role of Archie Bunker…….

        • Elaine Coyle

          I’m glad that you agree that liberals are not smarter than the rest of us. It they were they wouldn’t be Liberals.

      • CentralScruntinizer

        Suggest you read the internal polling and the electoral polling.   It’s not even close.   And before you bray about 2010, have a peek at Nate Silver’s 538 blog – He called both 2008 primaries, the 2008 general, the big 2010 GOP midterm win and ID’d Scott Walker as holding Wisconsin in the recall vote about 9 weeks earlier than anyone else.   He has this as a 76% likelihood of an Obama win with computer models pointing to 330-350 being the electoral vote total.   Also, Intrade, the ‘put your money where your mouth is”  public opinion futures brokerage has Obama as a 59% winner.  

        Could a sudden change of economic or world news change things radically and see Romney elected? Certainly – But right now the real polling based on Electoral votes has this thing not even close.  

        People like Bernie who make their money stoking partisan hopes aren’t gonna tell you this, but it’s as true as the fact that the Dems were gonna lose at least 30 seats in the house in 2010. 

        • EddieD_Boston

          Another computer model from Colorado U has Romney winning. But CU is a bastion of right-wing racist/sexist/homophobic thought so they can’t be trusted. Lol.

  • Alfano_lisa

    There is a lot of pressure from people when one says that they will not vote for Obama.
    Living in the VERY blue state of Connecticut, Conservatives are
    Attacked with the MSNBC chant of “being racist” if you do not support
    Obama. Many Conservatives just have given up being harassed by pollsters.
    When are these Liberals going to understand that we Conservatives do NOT
    care about the color of Obama’s skin; it’s his policies we hate!
    I would vote for a purple colored candidate if his policies were like Reagan’s.
    Conservative does not mean racist.

    • EddieD_Boston

      Ya but it makes them feel better to believe we’re all racists and that they’re better people.

  • http://twitter.com/profchuck22 Charles Ivie

    The recent failure of polls to predict actual ballot outcomes (Wisconsin for example) suggests that Goldberg is on to something.  My concern is that if the election is close Obama will win because of fraudulent voting.  The Democrats know this and that is why they are trying to make sure that illegals, felons, and dead people remain eligible to vote.  Why, for example, is a picture ID necessary to attend Democrat campaign functions but not to vote?

    • Otto Maddock

      Maybe they can also work in a mysterious power failure like the one in Nevada on Election Day 2010.

  • Realist

    Polls are a snapshot not an absolute.

  • garyinco

    Polls in 2010 were so off it was funny. Something will happen in Nov. Obama is toast.

  • asl3676

    What reasons will Bernie use when Obama wins? Lets see..Romney sucks, media bias, voters are stupid, voters hate Mormons…or all of the above?

    • Joker

      That’s easy voters would have to be stupid

    • EddieD_Boston

      Don’t want to burst your bubble but polls are trending in the wrong direction for Saint Barack. You obviously don’t get out much. I’ve seen a grand total of THREE Obama 2012 bumper-stickers on Route 128 over the last couple of weeks here in the bluest of blue states. Your dream has now turned into a nightmare for liberals. Obama is an empty suit and the country has figured it out and you apparently haven’t.

      • asl3676

           Don’t want to burst your bubble but there is little if any pro-Romney vote. Obama campaign in Mass. CA and NY is minimal due to lack of opposition…
            Romney and the Red Sox both suck this year….

        • JRawl

          “Romney and the Red Sox both suck this year….”, and so do you.

          • kayakbob (Ranger’s fan)

            yeah, but the Red Sox can turn this around by next year.

        • EddieD_Boston

          When Obama loses will you admit you don’t have a clue?

  • Iklwa

    If we are to accept polls at their face value (being what they are, who conducts them and how the questions are asked) they should be taken with more salt than belief in the resultant figures. If we think back on the election cycle of 2010, virtually all of the polls were, once again, saying things were “too close to call”. Then, when the democrats were roundly defeated everyone stood around in amazed wonderment at what had just happened and how poorly the election results compared with the prognostications.
     
    I will never forget the look of utter disbelief on Nancy Pelosi’s face the next day.
     
    I can only hope that the American people will see through the obfuscation erected by the leftists and vote for the long-term welfare of the nation.
     
    But then, I have had my hopes dashed before (i.e. Clinton’s second term of office).
     
    Every time the debate arises over the electoral collage I am always befuddled thinking about which is the more gullible group…the electorate or the collage.

  • Johnny Deadline

    Here’s hoping that the 2012 voter is more analytical like Bernie’s friend Sigmund and less American Idolish like they were in 2008.  The GOP set the template in Tampa: optimistic, positive and solutions-oriented.  Contrast that with this week’s “Forward” gathering in Charlotte:  fixated on blame, envy, divisiveness and punishing achievement.  It’s like Reagan vs Carter II.  Here’s hoping for similar results.  We’ve already got millions of unemployed Americans, so what’s one more sitting president? 

  • Bruce A.

    A statistical dead heat two months out from an election.  I don’t think a sitting President should be polling this low.

    • asl3676

      Obama is well ahead in electoral polling and will win easily…Perhaps Obama is standing, not sitting…

      • Elaine Coyle

        You may be surprised.
        We are coming to “THE END OF A ERROR.”

        • asl3676

          Look at the positive…You’ll have four more years to whine about Obama and look back in fondness to George W. Bush….

      • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/PPL2AXPXJMWPEJWFN34MPC5RNY terry

        ASL3676   NEWS FLASH,  REMEMBER 2010,  2012 IS GOING TO BE
        A LANDSLIDE.  ANY ONE WITH 1/2 BRAIN KNOWS HES A FRAUD &
        A CHARLATAN.  THE ONLY INTEREST HE HAS IS GOLF & PARTIES.

  • easyfeat

    Did CBS run a promo for Republican Convention coverage?  If so I never saw it and it’s not on YouTube. However I saw one this week promoting their team coverage of the Democratic Party’s convention which contained alot of fanfare and and invitation to watch “the best political team on television” cover the “biggest week for the Democrats.”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jk9B6vpg3hMI think this is an excellent example of something Mr. Goldberg has written about in his books.  The CBS news team appears to completely ignore the right while celebrating the left.  If I’m wrong and there is a comparable CBS ad, someone please let me know.  

  • James King

    I now think Obama will lose. But I came across a short video this morning and the speaker said to Google, “how do I qualify” and the result was hideous for anyone who loves what America is supposed to be. But BO would love it because it blows the lid off the entitlement notion.

    One of the things I keep telling my children (who are old because I am old) when they mention that America is a democracy that that is wrong. It is also one of the reasons America is in trouble. To make this easy to understand consider…you do not say “and to the democracy” when you recite the Pledge of Allegiance, you use the word “republic,” and this seems to be easy to understand.

    But just to explain further, many so-called experts use the word democracy, making it sit in over the years. However, our founders never intended America to be a democracy, which is why they put in several UNDEMOCRATIC parts of the Constitution, beginning with the biggest one, the Electoral College.

    A democracy is majority rule. This is what the collectivist’s like BO want to seep into the subconscious mind and that is what it has done over many years. If we were a democracy, Al Gore would have been elected president but he wasn’t because we aren’t.

    What does this have to do with Bernie’s column? Just this. People are polled and the results are what they are, but the mind’s of those polled have been “shaped” by outside influences like political Parties and Talking Heads to help not those who have been polled or those who follow the polls, but the politician’s who run the show for THEIR benefit, not ours. Hence many people believe we are a democracy and man believe whatever the polls magically tell them.

    Let’s all get together and really change America. One, by not responding to polls, but the biggest way is to “throw the bums out” with each election, even those we like. Poslitician’s might even change their tune with just a credible threat of that action. More than likely, though, it would take 3 or 4 election cycles. Then perhaps, we could get rid of the “how do I qualify” crap. 

  • rlpincus

     The Hill? Polls that appear in The Hill are conducted by Rasmussen-owned Pulse Opinion Research.  I wouldn’t write a paragraph based solely on poll numbers from the Hill, much less an entire article, unless I wasn’t really a writer.

    • asl3676

          Rasmussen is bought and paid for by Roger Ailes and Fox News…He’s there so Fox News has talking points to cite as to why Romney is doing well….Obama will win the electoral votes rather easily….Romney wont even carry any of his many “home” states including Mass, Maine and Cal….

      • JRawl

        What do you know about anything as(sho)l(e)3676?

        • CCNV

           LOL Thanks, JRawl! I thought I was the only one who read it that way!

  • http://blog.cyberquill.com/ Cyberquill

    It’s been reported that these are the “worst pre-convention favorability ratings for a presidential incumbent since the 1980s.” 

    Given that the only presidential incumbent in the 1980s was Ronald Reagan, who proceeded to thoroughly clean his challenger’s clock in the following election, I’m not exactly sure how “bad” this news for Barack Obama really is. 

    • Fred Pasek

      Uh, it’s “bad” because 40% think he desrves another term. Tough to win an election, getting 40%. Unless of course, people will vote for someone they think doesn’t deserve another term because the alternative is the devil himself, hence the Dems push to paint Romney as Lucifer.

      • http://blog.cyberquill.com/ Cyberquill

        Both parties traditionally paint the opposition candidate as the one who’ll drive the country into the ground if elected. What else is new?

        And as always, the only poll that really matters is the one taken at the ballot box on election day.

      • milootoole

         I will be universally hated, but add what you say to the females voting with their “Oooh, isn’t he handsome””, attitude and he could still win.

    • Ahalbert

      Reagan’s job approval rating as of election day 1984 was 58%. How does that help Obama — it doesn’t.

      • http://blog.cyberquill.com/ Cyberquill

        The article in The Hill cited by Bernie begins thus:

        President Obama has the lowest pre-convention favorability ratings for any incumbent since the 1980s

        This means that in the 1980s, there must have been an incumbent with even lower favorability ratings.

        Who might that incumbent have been?

        Perhaps they were referring to Jimmy Carter in 1980, but then why say “1980s” with an “s” as opposed to “1980” without an “s” (which was the only time when incumbent Carter’s pre-convention ratings could have been measured).

  • Link Hogthrob

    America has repudiated 0 and communism in every significant election since the “hopey changy”  farce in ’08:  Walker in WI, Christie in NJ, Brown in MA, McDonnell in VA, the 2010 midterms.  The same thing will happen in Nov. 
    The fact that the current polls do not reflect this is proof positive that they are flawed for whatever reason, and should not be trusted.  The poll that counts is the ballot box, where the chimp in chief has been greased since the point in time that America woke up and realized that he is nothing more than a left handed marxist street clown who had never had a real job in his f*¢k!ng life.

    • JRawl

      I hope Chris Matthews doesn’t read your “chimp in chief” remark!  He’ll go ballistic.

      • milootoole

         I can picture the spit flying!!!

      • Link Hogthrob

         That’s the goal, now ain’t it?

  • RICHARDS LYON

    My first try at “poetry.” Do my #13 shoes “show it?” They are “LONGFELLOWS.

    There once was a boy named Barry,
    Early childhood in the heartland of Kenya.
    His last name Soetoro he found inconvenient,
    And new name Barak Obama seemed better.
    He saw only himself as a career change appeared.
    His fantasy world was so easy to describe.
    Given everything to work with, tools all around him, but denied the Empathy needed to see them,
    He has gone his way, really alone, his toys soon to be gone. And when it is all “said and done” he will disappear in his world, content that his mission succeeded.

    But what was it? 
     

    • sendtheclunkerbacktochicago

      His Daddy was a “goat herder” in Kenya (Communist goat herder) could be a complete fabrication given he has a FORGED birth certificate and he looks a hell of a lot like Frank Marshall Davis rather than the goat herder.   That being said why isn’t Bernie Goldberg sitting in Sheriff Joe Arpaio’s office trying to find out the truth as to why Barack Hussein Obama would need to forge a birth record.  Do you think it would be important for the country to know this given that Barack Hussein Obama may be on the Democrat ballot for a SECOND time.  

      While you down in Phoenix Bernie check into the very questionable Selective Service registration.  Hell, Obama may not have even been in the country when that registration supposedly went down.   Wouldn’t that be hell, the Commander in Chief with a forged Selective Service card?  Do you think America should be told the truth before Barack Hussein Obama is our OTHER choice this November?  Wouldn’t you like to know if this President is a complete fraud or not?  

      How about allowing the courts to decide as to whether or not Barack Hussein Obama (aka Barry Soetoro, Harrison J. Bounel) has been using a fraudulent FLAGGED SS# before allowing the Democrats to place him on the ballot for a SECOND run at the Presidency!!

      Now why is the election “to close to call?”  When you have ALL of the media carrying Barack Hussein Obama’s water every dam day how the hell are the citizens suppose to know the truth about this fraud, criminal, liar and usurper.  I am surprised given the MEDIA love fest with this usurper that he isn’t spanking Romney’s ass.  

      • Ahalbert

        I don’t see a resemblance to Frank Marshall Davis. Obama  doesn’t especially look like his father either, except the ears. O’s father loved basketball, so O loved basketball. O’s father loved jazz, so O loved jazz. O’s father loved socialism (wrote articles about it), so O loved socialism.

      • Brian_Bayless

        You need psych meds.

      • milootoole

         How do you know they were communist goats?? Just humor, I agree with you.

  • RPLYON

    My first try at “poetry.” Do my #13 shoes “show it?” They are “LONGFELLOWS.

    There once was a boy named Barry,
    Early childhood in the heartland of Kenya.
    His last name Soetoro he found inconvenient,
    And new name Barak Obama seemed better.
    He saw only himself as a career change appeared.
    His fantasy world was so easy to describe.
    Given everything to work with, tools all around him, but denied the Empathy needed to see them,
    He has gone his way, really alone, his toys soon to be gone. And when it is all “said and done” he will disappear in his world, content that his mission succeeded.

    But what was it? 
     

    • BeauzeeKE21e6JR

      Really? Ever speak to any of the WITNESSES to the Hawaiian birth?

  • Sir_Ronald

    Obama is a fraud.  America don’t get hustle again!

    • asl3676

      Obama may be a fraud but Romney is a tax cheat and a draft dodger….

      • EddieD_Boston

        Romney isn’t a tax cheat. You’re head is up your ass as usual. Harry Reid is mentally retarded. Obama is done.

        As you liberals said in ’08, get over it.

        • asl3676

          You know Romney is not a tax cheat because? No Presidential candidate has won without carrying his home state since 1918….Romney is as popular in Mass. as Bobby Valentine…

          • milootoole

             He  paid over $#M in 2011 and gave $3M to his church and to charities. How much did you give false reporter?

          • asl3676

            What did he pay in 2008 ? Why do I care how much he’s given to the Mormon church? How do you know he’s paying all the taxes due? Amazing how you would vote for guy who dodged the draft and cheats on his taxes…

          • milootoole

             asl3 cents short of a nickel=
            You don’t care how much he gave to the church , but he gave a hell of a lot more to other charities than the cheapskate in the White House. But , you know that , you are jut trying to play the Alinsky game, but you are not smart enough. Meantime, he gets my respect for giving to any charities and his $3mil in taxes didn’t hurt either.

            Koff!

          • EddieD_Boston

            And you know he’s a tax cheat how? From Harry Reid? But you’re smarter than the rest of us. Lol

          • asl3676

            I believe he’s a tax cheat because I worked on Wall Street for 20 years and perhaps I am experienced in the way people do business in that world…More importantly, you’d be screaming up a storm if a Dem didn’t show their return..

      • milootoole

         Liar, liar, pants on fire!

  • Wheels55

    100% of the brainwashed support Obama.
    Of the non-brainwashed, 65% never believed in Obama’s Hope and Change and the other 35% have buyers remorse.
    This election will be won by Romney if there is enough voters with buyers remorse and less #1 people.

  • Rick Johnson

    Count me as one of your friend Sigmund’s #3’s.

  • http://twitter.com/TuckerPeterson_ Tucker Peterson

    “The Thrill Is Gone ” is the song that best fits Obama .

  • http://twitter.com/smorkingapple J

    Jesus, the fantastical thinking here is priceless… Can I destroy this please?

    “1. Those polled don’t want to be labeled racists [so they tell the pollsters they’re going to vote for President Obama or that they’re undecided].”What pollster is going to call someone a racist over the phone? How about the robopolls where it’s a computer not a person asking the question? Why didn’t this show up in 2008 when Obama was way more unknown than he is now? Why would this NOW show up in polling? “2. Those polled are suspicious and distrustful of any perceived, institutional or political questions of any kind.”And this would show up in every poll across multiple states taken over several months? Do you even have a rudimentary understanding  of how stats work and how this very effect is avoided? “3. Those polled who are conservative either hang up or decline because they believe their vote is their vote, and none of our business, particularly in today’s toxic environment and particularly among older voters who actually will vote.”WTF is this? Really? Why would anyone think this way? Wouldn’t conservative voters WANT THE POLLS TO SHOW OBAMA LOSING? Under what “logic” would conservatives want to hide their voting intentions? Guys, I know it sucks, but Obama is going to win re-election.  You want a no nonsense approach to why? Check Nate Silver today http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/sept-4-the-simple-case-for-why-obama-is-the-favorite/

    • Gewineda

       J, the answers are as follows:
      1. a. First, it was far less likely to show up in 2008 because Obama *was* an unknown and we were in a severely depressed economy after 8 years of George W.  Not that it was all Ws fault – there is enormous blame to go around in both parties.
      b.  Robopolls are no more likely to obtain correct information than personal polls, so the conditions are the same regardless.  c.  Who says it didn’t show up then? 
      2. a.Yes, it would.  It always does. Polls try to correct for this factor, but some do it better than others, and the more difficult or harsh or political it is, the more likely this is to happen.  Statistics can correct for this only so much.  It varies even from one candidate to another. 
      3.  Conservatives, especially older ones, are far less likely to reveal their positions, especially to pollsters.  The older ones have many memories of the range of error in polls, and have seen a long history of Harris showing one thing and Gallup another, and others varying by degrees, all depending on the questions asked and the proclivities of the voter (see “push polling”, which has been a greater and greater phenomenon over the last two decades, which is designed not to take a snapshot of the electorate, but to influence the vote or to massage the numbers) and it is a fact that the desire of many voters to participate in these things is decreasing, especially the more negative the campaigning gets.

      • asl3676

        Older conservatives dont get polled because the pollsters don’t have 15 minutes to listen to them whining and being bitter….

        • EddieD_Boston

          Hey, did you happen to catch the results of the 2010 mid-terms?

        • Gewineda

           SMILE when you say that, sonny-boy…I just turned 57 (not geezerhood yet, esp to me).  You young whippersnappers do a heck of a lot more whining than we do, though.

        • milootoole

           I am 79. I was a Democrat years ago. Then I found I was rubbing elbows with fools like you.
          There is a God, abortion is murder, taxes stifle growth, one size fits all does not work in healthcare (or most places), disliking someone who happens to be another color does not mean racism, welfare creates permanent dependence. Liberal make emotional, not practical solutions.

          I have not been polled. I could say what I wrote above in less than a minute and even less time to tell you to bug off little cry baby.

          • asl3676

            Next time you get your social security check or use medicare remember which party is responsible for the benefit….Sad to see how bitter and ungrateful you’ve become…

          • milootoole

             Sad to see how biased and uninformed you are as well as being an emotional chauvinistic zealot…
            I could read you chapter and verse about the good and bad of both parties, In  this day and age, the DNC emits hate and fear to keep people like you in their stable.

            Even a blind pig finds a truffle now and then.

          • asl3676

            Thank you for you insight Mr. Bunker…..

      • http://twitter.com/smorkingapple J

        This is confirmation bias at it’s finest right here. You want this to be true and despite all the polls that have been taken since the cycle started, they’ve shown Obama with a consistent lead when averaged out. Let’s not even get into the electoral college math which has Obama ahead by a wide margin. 

        Somehow, there’s this secret voting bloc out there that doesn’t show up in the polling and will reveal itself come November. Yeah… 

        Look, in 2008, I signed onto the Bradley effect and worried that Obama may come in lower than his polling suggested. If it aint work then, it’s definitely not working now. 

        • Gewineda

           From Wikipedia:  Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs.

          A bit of the pot calling the kettle black here, eh, what, old boy?

          Seriously, whether we are Repubs, Dems, libs or cons, it doesn’t hurt to listen to each other.  My preference at the end of a conversation like this one is to say that I may think I’m more correct than you are…but you raise good points.  I think that you did.  I believe I did, too.  If we disagree…at least we did so rationally and with some respect for the other’s point of view.  I hope.

    • JohnInMA

      It’s simple.  You only need to tune into most any news broadcast, especially MSNBC lately, and see a persistent and piercing cry of racism for practically every non-adoring comment of Obama.  We’ve all probably heard that any reference to Chicago and Chicago style politics is clearly racist, because…..wait for it……black people live there.   So there is almost no difficulty for a thinking person to tentatively conclude that some if not many who really do not want to see Obama reelected would hesitate to tell anyone, anonymous or not, their real feelings.

      Further, a thinking person could also see another sign in the bias of most polls.  The ratio of party affiliation is somewhat random, meaning it cannot be targeted absolutely.  That most have a unnatural bias to Dems (relative to the past two national elections) suggests the conservative ‘hang-up” claim could also be reasonable.

      It’s silly to over-analyze polls, except that it enriches the punditry and pollsters alike, so they continue.  The process is not conducive to scientific certainty, and even the best pollsters present their results with more uncertainty than the statistically derived values.   Translation:  The only reliable poll results are those that demonstratively show a leader, especially over a long period of time.  To conclude that Obama will win based on months of mediocre poll results (from his perspective) is wishful thinking at best.  After endless Romney-bashing and faux-social-wars, and considering he is the incumbent, he should be dominating the polls.  Statistically, he is just as likely to loose as Romney at this stage, with all the notoriety and media bias in his favor.

      • http://twitter.com/smorkingapple J

        What is this reinvention of history here? History shows incumbents with poor economic records should lose handily. Obama is up despite everything and despite the FIVE YEARS of negative attacks that have gone at him. You’re seriously crying about 2 months of Bain and tax return attacks when Obama has dealt with everything from the birther BS to Rev Wright to the debt debacle? You guys are still calling him a socialist and boo hooing about his college transcripts!! Now Romney should be given credit because he got 2 months of some heat? LMAO!!!

        • EddieD_Boston

          He’s NOT up. Gawd you liberals are deranged.

        • JohnInMA

          How about you link to a credible poll within the last week showing your man is up?

          And nice try on the crying piece.  I shed no tears.  I was simply pointing out factual events that are valid in supporting the variety of views about the polls.  Also, I welcome your evidence that I called him a socialist.  I don’t know who “you guys” refers to, but it surely must not be me if the label socialist is involved.

          Coming to sites like this with your combative hyperbole and illogical rants perhaps gives you some emotional release, but to those who watch with a more rational eye you seem like a high-school kid.  Are you?

    • Ahalbert

      In 2008, people weren’t being routinely called racists for questioning Obama’s ideas. Now people talk less freely. There is more distrust of government, of political organizations, of media, and pollsters themselves. Many people don’t want to tell a stranger how they plan to vote, and many poll questions are poor or confusing. There’s a bigger potential for bogus info than the “margin of error”. Even exit polls from Nov. 6 won’t help you much. The silent majority will speak. Obama will lose. Nate Silver’s article reminds me of sports stats given before an at bat or football play – not usually predictive of what happens. It will become part of the pile of liberal statistical dung.

    • milootoole

       Get a grip libbie!

  • noodler60

    Even as a Republican who has never liked Obama (as soon as I was able to get a handle on who he was) I never understood this whole “likability” thing. And as he has been president, whatever likability he may have had has evaporated under his style of hectoring, finger-pointing (figuratively and literally), humorlessness, and ad nauseum blaming of his predecessors for the problems he may have inherited but has been clueless about how to solve.
    Romney has always struck me as more likable; a man with a can-do and optimistic spirit that has been borne out through his many tangible achievements.

    • Wheels55

      Mr & Mrs Obama spend a lot of time on talk shows. It’s like they are promoting their reality TV show. People who like that are the same people who think Shooki is a real celebrity.

    • asl3676

      Romney is likable just like a statue in the park….Don’t forget his accomplishments include draft dodging and tax evasion…..obviously accomplishments we  should all admire in a Presidential candidate… 

      • Jeffreydan

          I understand your need to lie about Governor Romney, seeing that it’s gotta be a lot easier for you than telling the truth about Obama.
          Your guy is about to get his clock cleaned by a real leader, and it’s got you terrified.  

        • asl3676

          What am I lying about…Romney being a draft dodger or a tax cheat? You know nothing about Romney and would probably vote for Nixon again if he ran…Amazing how the Republicans can get people like you to vote against your own self interests….
          The only thing I’m terrified about is thinking about how manybitter and hateful old people are out there who don’t give a crap about anything but thenselves…

          • Gewineda

             Perhaps you should define your terms and provide some facts in saying that Romney is a draft dodger and a tax cheat, and provide some facts.

            In fact, it would be nice to see some definitions and facts on “bitter and hateful old people” as well.  Where does that come from?  What do you have that supports your conclusion?  And how old are you?

            During the Vietnam War, Romney had, I believe, two educational deferments – those were perfectly legal (as a bitter and hateful old person of 57, I was alive back then), and given routinely to college students.  (There certainly were some people who went to college just to get those deferments – but no indication or history that Mitt was one of them.)  (Nor would it have been any sort of “illegal draft dodge” to do so.)  Mitt also was then given a deferment for ministry/missionary work…also perfectly and appropriately legal, and not even something that “everybody” did to get out of the draft.  He was an active Mormon.  That was one of the things required then (and now) of young Mormon grads.

            Mitt spent 2 1/2 years in the mission field in France, an act actively encouraged of all Mormon young people and not just Mitt Romney.  As I was alive back then, I know that these deferments were perfectly legal, too.

            When those deferments ended, he went up for the draft.  His draft lottery number was high, and so he did not get chosen.  Even that wasn’t to do anything for Mitt Romney…they picked those birthdates at random, for cats’ sake.  And yes, I know this because, as a bitter and hateful old man, I was there then, too.  My own draft number was also high, although not extraordinarily so…I think it was in the low 100’s, but that was enough.  And that was the year that Nixon went to an all-volunteer army, so after the draft lottery, they quit drafting people, and so no one who turned 18 in 1973 got drafted – according to my old, bitter, hateful and undoubtedly sorry memory, that is.

            “Tax cheat?”  I respectfully submit that as there has not been a single instance of Romney getting audited or getting found to be “cheating”on his taxes.  Unless you have a different definition, I believe that saving money by using the Byzantine, screwy tax code is not “cheating”.  However, if your definition is different than that…that “cheating” is using the tax law but is still somehow evil…then lets make an example of all of the liberal Hollywood types, the liberal icons at Berkshire Hathaway, Bill Gates, etc., too, who have done nothing more than what Mitt has done.  “Cheating”, I say, is where you do something that is not in the tax code or not permitted by the tax code.  You break the law.  Romney has not.

            In addition, Romney gives away more money by far to church and charity than most people who really are trying to cheat and break the law are trying to hide illegally from the govt.

            Oops, time for my dementia pill.

            Oh, and I voted for Nixon the second time around.  Too young in 1968.  Knowing what I know now – I probably woudn’t have.  McGovern, at least, had to work with a legislature, which would have acted as a brake against the more wild-eyed liberal actions (as it has with B.O.).  And George, at least, treated his colleagues in the Senate with respect.  Heck, he and Barry Goldwater, opposites though they were, were friends, respected each other, and worked together on legislation sometimes to get stuff done that would give some liberals and conservatives both some stuff to chew on.

            And yes, I know that because I was alive then, says the decrepit old man…

          • asl3676

            When you stary using the phrase “perfectly legal” I, as an attorney, understand that you cannot defend the ethical basis for one’s actions. Whether something is legal or not cannot be determined unless one is charged with a crime.
            As someone a few years older than you I can tell you that some rich kids like Romney avoided the draft by claiming 4D status. He didn’t have to go to France, obviously a tough assignment, he chose to. Muhammed Ali claimed religious exemption and was convicted of a crime…What’s the difference between the two?

          • Jeffreydan

              Rational people out there are no doubt impressed with your comment, and can see you’ve cut a*s**l*’s libel off at the knees.
              As for the irrational ones, well, maybe if we somehow convinced them that Gov. Romney preferred to associate with America-haters & Communists they’d have a change of heart.    

          • PVMan1

             I wouldn’t waste my time, Gewineda. When a person like that actually believes the crap that Oblah-blah spews, they’re a lost cause…looking for handouts and will never amount to anything but leaching off of others…that’s why Oblamer has to go down…and will.

          • Jeffreydan

              Going over the Tired Cliche list…
              -“bitter & hateful”: check
              -“voting against your own self interests”: check
              -Medicare & Social Security hypocrisy: skipped
              -Archie Bunker/accusation of bigotry: skipped
              -mistaking criticism for whining: skipped

              Failing to regurgitate THREE cliches? Goodness, a*s**l*, you’re slipping. Next time you post, don’t let your paralyzing fear get in the way of giving your dead horse a proper beating.   

          • asl3676

            Jeffrey,
                
                  Perhaps your view of social and political matters were first offerred by Archie Bunker. If you fit the category then wear it and stop whining about how the government is screwing you…. 

          • Gewineda

             I thought asl was younger at first…but no reason to disbelieve it when he says that he is an attorney and older than 57.  I believe you are right that he used the Archie Bunker comment somewhere…at my age, I easily recognize that one, where in the usual media you never hear it anymore.  An indicator of someone my age or older, I think.  Certainly of one over 40.

            No question of his reasoning ability though.  Comparing Ali to Romney was a good analogy, although with enough research, it doesn’t appear to stand up.  Being a 1955 baby, at the back, “bleeding” edge of the baby boom, he sounds like a lot of older kids I knew back in the 60’s, or their older brothers and sisters.  That’s not a slam, btw.

            Criticizing my use of “perfectly legal?”  A good point there, too, at least using it to imply that things that are legal are not necessarily ethical.  The problem, however, is to then go on and identify how consistently acting within the Internal Revenue Code, in the way Mitt did, is still unethical.  “Unethical” is an easy criticism to make…harder to make stick, however.  But I should have watched my language to be clear that I considered Mitt’s actions thus far, both financially and draft-wise, to be above ethical reproach, as well as legal reproach, at least to the extent that I know what those action are.  I’m certainly not as “up” on the subject of Bain Capital as I am on the draft, so if someone wants to make factual arguments, as I did on the draft, I’m  willing to listen.

            I went to Kalamazoo College during the 70s.  One of the more liberal small colleges of the time, and even more liberal now.  I currently reside near Hillsdale College, one of the more conservative small colleges in the country.  Talking to all sorts of people with all sorts of opinions is good for me and helps me avoid…what did J call it???  Um, “confirmation bias.”

      • PVMan1

         Oh…and don’t foget, he killed that woman that had cancer…and did you see what Paul Ryan did? He threw that poor old woman off of a CLIFF. Oblah-blah’s only wants to throw the whole country off a cliff.

    • http://twitter.com/smorkingapple J

      “Tangible achievements” = his wealth. Unfortunately, many people consider more than their bank statement as measures of success. ROmney was born on 3rd base and you guys are swearing he hit a triple. 

      • Gewineda

         How did he start on third base?  He went through public schools for many years…only after his dad became the CEO of American Motors was he able to go to Cranbrook.  His dad was born almost penniless in Mexico living with his own parents.  Mitt did a 30 month stint as a Mormon missionary in France, after graduating from BYU, an occupation notable by its penurious benefits.  (That’s 2 1/2 years.)

        He eventually went to Harvard Law and Harvard Business School, something that his family probably helped him afford.  But he and Ann lived in a basement apartment.  He was later in the top third of his law school class and in the top 5% of his MBA class.  Neither law school nor business school come with guarantees of starting at “third base.”  He then made his own money, mainly, not from having the greatest money-making ideas, but by organizing, overseeing, making the best ideas as successful as possible.  Presidents, btw, are better as administrators than as “idea” men.  Any money he inherited from his family was all given to charity and the Mormon Church. 

        In 2010, on an income of over $21 million, he gave away $3,000,000 – that is roughly 30%, to those of you who don’t even bother to tithe 10% to church.  Ann Romney has multiple sclerosis – they have a foundation to which they contribute large sums every year for that purpose, I believe in addition to the aforementioned $3,000,000.00.

        Tax evasion????  Nothing he has done has even remotely activated the “smell test”.  What he has done is perfectly legal.  If you don’t like some of those things, tell Congress to change ‘em.  Don’t bitch at the guy who does what the law tells him he can do in the first place.  Bitch at the legislature.

        “Draft dodging?”  He had educational deferments.  Then a church missionary deferment.  All of which were used by thousands upon thousands of persons whose names were NOT Mitt Romney.  When his number finally came up in the draft lottery, his number was picked high, so there was no chance he would be drafted.  I was lucky enough to get that, too, out of high school.  Which was also, for me, the year the draft was ended by Pres. Nixon.  Until we enact a constitutional amendment that Presidents *must* have served in the military, “W”, Clinton, Ford, Nixon, LBJ, etc., were perfectly legal without any real military experience.  Mitt, if elected, likewise.  “Draft dodger” my left foot.

      • Jeffreydan

          You clearly have Governor Romney confused with Ted Kennedy. 

    • Johnny Deadline

      I’m with you on the “liability” thing.  How can you personally like someone that you believe is ineffectual, under-qualified and has an over-exaggerated sense of themselves?  Seriously, how can you “like” someone that you think doesn’t have America’s back domestically or on foreign policy matters?  This stuff about thinking that the country is staring at a fiscal cliff and is on the wrong path but you wouldn’t mind sharing a beer with the guy in the driver’s seat? Thinking like that is what got Barack Obama elected in the first place.  Spare us the reality TV mentality.  We’re voting for arguably the most powerful position in the world, not prom king at Ridgemont High.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_OG7ROVD3UVEF35ABIWHLUQTR7M Groundskeeper Willy

    ABBO 

  • Thomascdukeiii

    I am definately #3….